PIMCO Municipal Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| PML Fund | USD 7.51 0.04 0.54% |
This page provides Simple Moving Average reference data for PIMCO Municipal Income, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from PIMCO Municipal's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of PIMCO Municipal Income on the next trading day is expected to be 7.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.14.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of PIMCO Municipal Income price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of PIMCO Municipal. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average reference information for PIMCO Municipal is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of PIMCO Municipal Income on the next trading day is expected to be 7.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.002 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.14 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PIMCO Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PIMCO Municipal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PIMCO Municipal | PIMCO Municipal Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for PIMCO Municipal Income focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PIMCO Municipal fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PIMCO Municipal fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.0482 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0039 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0356 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0047 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.135 |
Other Forecasting Options for PIMCO Municipal
The autocorrelation structure of PIMCO Municipal's daily returns reveals whether PIMCO exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in PIMCO Fund price data.PIMCO Municipal Related Equities
These stocks are related to PIMCO Municipal within the Asset Management space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Checking PIMCO Municipal against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. When PIMCO Municipal breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring. This type of review is most useful when done often to track how positions shift over time.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PIMCO Municipal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to PIMCO Municipal fund help assess momentum and resilience across environments. These indicators support informed market timing decisions when analyzing PIMCO Municipal.
PIMCO Municipal Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for PIMCO Municipal is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PIMCO Municipal's investment and either accepting or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4279 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5334 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5526 | |||
| Variance | 0.3054 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3604 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2845 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PIMCO Municipal
Story coverage around PIMCO Municipal Income often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.