PIMCO EMERGING Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| PLMPX Fund | USD 7.59 0.01 0.13% |
PIMCO Emerging Markets's Polynomial Regression reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of PIMCO Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 7.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.49.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the PIMCO EMERGING historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm All Polynomial Regression forecast figures shown for PIMCO Emerging Markets are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of PIMCO Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 7.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0023 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.49 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PIMCO Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PIMCO EMERGING's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for PIMCO Emerging Markets focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PIMCO EMERGING mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PIMCO EMERGING mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.0479 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0408 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0053 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.4865 |
Other Forecasting Options for PIMCO EMERGING
Bollinger Bands applied to PIMCO Mutual Fund price data measure how far PIMCO has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to PIMCO EMERGING's price data.PIMCO EMERGING Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of PIMCO EMERGING within the Emerging-Markets Local-Currency Bond space and offer context for ranking and strength. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across PIMCO EMERGING's peer group. How PIMCO EMERGING ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes. Tracking PIMCO EMERGING's results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PIMCO EMERGING Market Strength Events
For investors tracking PIMCO Emerging Markets, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around PIMCO Emerging Markets positions.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.59 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
PIMCO EMERGING Risk Indicators
Analyzing PIMCO EMERGING's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for pimco mutual fund. By identifying the level of risk embedded in PIMCO EMERGING's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3146 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4286 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4334 | |||
| Variance | 0.1878 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3492 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1837 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PIMCO EMERGING
Coverage intensity for PIMCO Emerging Markets matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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