Prudential Balanced Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression
| PIBQX Fund | USD 18.49 0.07 0.38% |
Prudential Balanced's Simple Regression forecast is presented here as reference data, derived from the equity's available price history. Key metrics including projected price and mean absolute deviation are summarized below.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Prudential Balanced on the next trading day is expected to be 18.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.00.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Prudential Balanced historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. Prudential Balanced's Simple Regression reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Prudential Balanced on the next trading day is expected to be 18.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.00 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Prudential Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Prudential Balanced's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Prudential Balanced | Prudential Balanced Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Prudential Balanced for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Prudential Balanced mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Prudential Balanced mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7208 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1612 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.9966 |
Other Forecasting Options for Prudential Balanced
Whether evaluating Prudential for the first time or as a seasoned investor, Prudential Balanced's price movement is central to the investment decision. The noise in Prudential Mutual Fund price charts can obscure the underlying trend and lead to suboptimal decisions.Prudential Balanced Related Equities
The following equities are related to Prudential Balanced within the Allocation--50% to 70% Equity space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Prudential Balanced against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Prudential Balanced Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Prudential Balanced measure how the mutual fund aligns with and responds to changes in broader market momentum. Investors use these signals to time their positions in Prudential Balanced more effectively.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.49 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.035 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.07 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 46.96 |
Prudential Balanced Risk Indicators
Understanding Prudential Balanced's risk indicators is a fundamental step in projecting its price and managing investment exposure responsibly. Investors who carefully evaluate the risks in Prudential Balanced's are better positioned to make informed decisions about their holdings.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3988 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.507 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5148 | |||
| Variance | 0.265 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3094 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2571 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.45 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Prudential Balanced
A coverage review of Prudential Balanced helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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