PennyMac Finl Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| PFSI Stock | USD 84.45 -3.58 -4.07% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast shown here for PennyMac Finl is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of PennyMac Finl Svcs on the next trading day is projected to be 84.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 203.21.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of PennyMac Finl Svcs price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of PennyMac Finl. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average reference page for PennyMac Finl presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of PennyMac Finl Svcs on the next trading day is expected to be 84.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.44 , mean absolute percentage error of 64.43 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 203.21 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PennyMac Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PennyMac Finl's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates PennyMac Finl's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PennyMac Finl stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PennyMac Finl stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6004 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.2408 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.4442 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0329 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 203.205 |
Other Forecasting Options for PennyMac Finl
The distribution of PennyMac Finl's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in PennyMac Finl's chart that simple price charts miss.PennyMac Finl Related Equities
These stocks within the Financials space are often compared to PennyMac Finl by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for PennyMac Finl's results. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PennyMac Finl Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for PennyMac Finl give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in PennyMac Finl Svcs.
PennyMac Finl Risk Indicators
A thorough review of PennyMac Finl's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in PennyMac Finl's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.79 | |||
| Variance | 22.91 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PennyMac Finl
The amount of media and story coverage tied to PennyMac Finl Svcs can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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PennyMac Finl Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to PennyMac Finl Svcs matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 53.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 711.7 M |