PennyMac Finl Stock Forward View
| PFSI Stock | USD 84.45 -3.58 -4.07% |
This page provides reference data for PennyMac Finl using Naive Prediction forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of PennyMac Finl Svcs on the next trading day is projected to be 66.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 467.40.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of PennyMac Finl Svcs. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict PennyMac Finl. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for PennyMac Finl presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. PennyMac Finl Cash Forecast
The quality of a cash forecast for PennyMac Finl depends on the accuracy of underlying assumptions about PennyMac Finl's revenue, costs, and working capital trends derived from its historical financial statements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 621.9 M | Current Value 301.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 437.7 M |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of PennyMac Finl Svcs on the next trading day is expected to be 66.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.54 , mean absolute percentage error of 94.55 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 467.40 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PennyMac Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PennyMac Finl's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PennyMac Finl | PennyMac Finl Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting PennyMac Finl Svcs for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PennyMac Finl stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PennyMac Finl stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.4975 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.5388 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0702 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 467.4043 |
Other Forecasting Options for PennyMac Finl
For investors considering PennyMac, PennyMac Finl's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in PennyMac Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.PennyMac Finl Related Equities
The following equities are related to PennyMac Finl within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing PennyMac Finl against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PennyMac Finl Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for PennyMac Finl provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in PennyMac Finl Svcs.
| Accumulation Distribution | 33990.04 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.88 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 85.59 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 85.21 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -2.92 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -3.58 |
PennyMac Finl Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of PennyMac Finl's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in PennyMac Finl's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.65 | |||
| Variance | 21.67 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PennyMac Finl
The amount of media and story coverage tied to PennyMac Finl Svcs can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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PennyMac Finl Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for PennyMac Finl Svcs is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 53.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 711.7 M |