PIMCO FOREIGN Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PFORX Fund | USD 9.72 -0.05 -0.51% |
The reference data on this page reflects Simple Exponential Smoothing output applied to PIMCO Foreign Bond's historical daily closing prices. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PIMCO Foreign Bond on the next trading day is expected to be 9.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.99.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting PIMCO Foreign Bond forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent PIMCO FOREIGN observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The forecast reference data presented here for PIMCO Foreign Bond reflects Simple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PIMCO Foreign Bond on the next trading day is expected to be 9.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.99 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PIMCO Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PIMCO FOREIGN's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for PIMCO Foreign Bond uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PIMCO FOREIGN mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PIMCO FOREIGN mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.823 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0018 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0165 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0017 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for PIMCO FOREIGN
Understanding PIMCO FOREIGN's price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering PIMCO as a position. PIMCO Mutual Fund price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.PIMCO FOREIGN Related Equities
The following equities are related to PIMCO FOREIGN within the World Bond-USD Hedged space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing PIMCO FOREIGN against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PIMCO FOREIGN Market Strength Events
For traders and investors in PIMCO Foreign Bond, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the mutual fund's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading PIMCO FOREIGN shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 36.17 |
PIMCO FOREIGN Risk Indicators
Analyzing PIMCO FOREIGN's risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in PIMCO FOREIGN's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1676 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2372 | |||
| Variance | 0.0563 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PIMCO FOREIGN
Story coverage around PIMCO Foreign Bond often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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