PIMCO FOREIGN Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PFORX Fund  USD 9.72  -0.05  -0.51%   
The reference data on this page reflects Simple Exponential Smoothing output applied to PIMCO Foreign Bond's historical daily closing prices. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PIMCO Foreign Bond on the next trading day is expected to be 9.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.99.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting PIMCO Foreign Bond forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent PIMCO FOREIGN observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The forecast reference data presented here for PIMCO Foreign Bond reflects Simple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use.
PIMCO FOREIGN simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for PIMCO Foreign Bond are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as PIMCO Foreign Bond prices get older.

Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PIMCO Foreign Bond on the next trading day is expected to be 9.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.99 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PIMCO Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PIMCO FOREIGN's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest PIMCO FOREIGN  PIMCO FOREIGN Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for PIMCO Foreign Bond uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Market Value
9.72
9.72
Expected Value
9.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PIMCO FOREIGN mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PIMCO FOREIGN mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.823
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0018
MADMean absolute deviation0.0165
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0017
SAESum of the absolute errors0.99
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting PIMCO Foreign Bond forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent PIMCO FOREIGN observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for PIMCO FOREIGN

Understanding PIMCO FOREIGN's price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering PIMCO as a position. PIMCO Mutual Fund price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.

PIMCO FOREIGN Related Equities

The following equities are related to PIMCO FOREIGN within the World Bond-USD Hedged space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing PIMCO FOREIGN against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PIMCO FOREIGN Market Strength Events

For traders and investors in PIMCO Foreign Bond, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the mutual fund's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading PIMCO FOREIGN shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.

PIMCO FOREIGN Risk Indicators

Analyzing PIMCO FOREIGN's risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in PIMCO FOREIGN's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for PIMCO FOREIGN

Story coverage around PIMCO Foreign Bond often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.