ETFis Series Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

PFFR Etf  USD 18.20  0.15  0.83%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ETFis Series Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 18.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.58. ETFis Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The relative strength momentum indicator of ETFis Series' share price is at 54 indicating that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ETFis Series, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ETFis Series' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ETFis Series and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ETFis Series' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ETFis Series Trust, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using ETFis Series hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ETFis Series Trust from the perspective of ETFis Series response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ETFis Series Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 18.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.58.

ETFis Series after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 18.2  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ETFis Series to cross-verify your projections.

ETFis Series Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ETFis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ETFis using various technical indicators. When you analyze ETFis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for ETFis Series is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ETFis Series Trust value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ETFis Series Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ETFis Series Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 18.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.58.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ETFis Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ETFis Series' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ETFis Series Etf Forecast Pattern

Backtest ETFis SeriesETFis Series Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

ETFis Series Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ETFis Series' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ETFis Series' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.90 and 18.74, respectively. We have considered ETFis Series' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.20
18.32
Expected Value
18.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ETFis Series etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ETFis Series etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.9214
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0587
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0033
SAESum of the absolute errors3.5837
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ETFis Series Trust. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ETFis Series. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ETFis Series

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ETFis Series Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.7818.2018.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.7118.1318.55
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.8618.0418.23
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ETFis Series. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ETFis Series' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ETFis Series' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ETFis Series Trust.

ETFis Series After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ETFis Series at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ETFis Series or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of ETFis Series, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ETFis Series Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ETFis Series' etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ETFis Series' historical news coverage. ETFis Series' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.78 and 18.62, respectively. We have considered ETFis Series' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
18.20
18.20
After-hype Price
18.62
Upside
ETFis Series is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ETFis Series Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.

ETFis Series Etf Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as ETFis Series is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ETFis Series backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ETFis Series, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.00  
0.42
 0.00  
 0.00  
4 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
18.20
18.20
0.00 
381.82  
Notes

ETFis Series Hype Timeline

ETFis Series Trust is at this time traded for 18.20. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. ETFis is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on ETFis Series is about 518.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.20. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ETFis Series to cross-verify your projections.

ETFis Series Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ETFis Series' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ETFis Series' future price movements. Getting to know how ETFis Series' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ETFis Series may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
YALLGod Bless America 0.29 3 per month 1.02 (0.11) 1.10 (1.82) 3.63 
RZGInvesco SP SmallCap(0.34)13 per month 0.99  0.02  1.86 (1.67) 4.72 
JPXNiShares JPX Nikkei 400(0.08)4 per month 0.76  0.01  1.63 (1.53) 4.22 
FFNDThe Future Fund(0.08)2 per month 0.59 (0.04) 1.08 (1.18) 3.35 
QQMGInvesco ESG NASDAQ 0.46 2 per month 1.20 (0.05) 1.50 (2.04) 5.01 
CGUICapital Group Fixed(0.81)10 per month 0.00 (2.21) 0.08 (0.04) 0.16 
EMTLSPDR DoubleLine Emerging(0.01)3 per month 0.00 (0.77) 0.19 (0.14) 0.58 
ACSIAmerican Customer Satisfaction 0.11 4 per month 0.78 (0.07) 1.42 (1.02) 4.68 
FEBWAIM ETF Products 0.02 1 per month 0.00 (0.23) 0.42 (0.42) 1.13 
SPVUInvesco SP 500(0.37)12 per month 0.48  0.04  1.65 (1.03) 3.13 

Other Forecasting Options for ETFis Series

For every potential investor in ETFis, whether a beginner or expert, ETFis Series' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ETFis Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ETFis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ETFis Series' price trends.

ETFis Series Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ETFis Series etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ETFis Series could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ETFis Series by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ETFis Series Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ETFis Series etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ETFis Series shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ETFis Series etf market strength indicators, traders can identify ETFis Series Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ETFis Series Risk Indicators

The analysis of ETFis Series' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ETFis Series' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting etfis etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ETFis Series

The number of cover stories for ETFis Series depends on current market conditions and ETFis Series' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ETFis Series is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ETFis Series' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
When determining whether ETFis Series Trust is a strong investment it is important to analyze ETFis Series' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact ETFis Series' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding ETFis Etf, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ETFis Series to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
The market value of ETFis Series Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ETFis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ETFis Series' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ETFis Series' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ETFis Series' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ETFis Series' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ETFis Series' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ETFis Series is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ETFis Series' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.