Adams Natural Fund Forecast - Simple Regression
| PEO Fund | USD 24.52 0.25 1.03% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Adams Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 23.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.30. Adams Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Adams Natural's share price is below 20 indicating that the fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Adams Natural hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Adams Natural Resources from the perspective of Adams Natural response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Adams Natural using Adams Natural's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Adams using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Adams Natural's stock price.
Adams Natural Implied Volatility | 1.28 |
Adams Natural's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Adams Natural Resources stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Adams Natural's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Adams Natural stock will not fluctuate a lot when Adams Natural's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Adams Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 23.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.30. Adams Natural after-hype prediction price | USD 24.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Adams |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Adams contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Adams Natural Resources will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.08% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Adams Natural trading at USD 24.52, that is roughly USD 0.0196 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Adams Natural's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Adams Natural Resources options at the current volatility level of 1.28%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Adams Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Adams Natural's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Adams Natural's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Adams Natural stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Adams Natural's open interest, investors have to compare it to Adams Natural's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Adams Natural is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Adams. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Adams Natural Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Adams price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Adams using various technical indicators. When you analyze Adams charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Adams Natural Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Adams Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 23.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adams Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adams Natural's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Adams Natural Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adams Natural | Adams Natural Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Adams Natural Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Adams Natural's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adams Natural's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.11 and 24.20, respectively. We have considered Adams Natural's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adams Natural fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adams Natural fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8588 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4147 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0187 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.2972 |
Predictive Modules for Adams Natural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adams Natural Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adams Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Adams Natural After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Adams Natural at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Adams Natural or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of Adams Natural, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Adams Natural Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Adams Natural's fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Adams Natural's historical news coverage. Adams Natural's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.54 and 25.64, respectively. We have considered Adams Natural's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Adams Natural is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Adams Natural Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
Adams Natural Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as Adams Natural is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Adams Natural backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Adams Natural, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 1.05 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.52 | 24.59 | 0.29 |
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Adams Natural Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Adams Natural Resources is traded for 24.52. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Adams is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 24.59 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.25%. The volatility of related hype on Adams Natural is about 7500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.52. The company reported the last year's revenue of 20.13 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 119.05 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 16.84 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adams Natural to cross-verify your projections.Adams Natural Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Adams Natural's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Adams Natural's future price movements. Getting to know how Adams Natural's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Adams Natural may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DIAX | Nuveen Dow 30Sm | (0.03) | 1 per month | 0.41 | 0.06 | 0.99 | (0.91) | 2.30 | |
| HRAAX | Hartford Growth Allocation | 0.03 | 1 per month | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.97 | (0.94) | 10.68 | |
| ALZFX | Alger Capital Appreciation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.33 | 0.04 | 2.24 | (2.63) | 8.01 | |
| DSU | Blackrock Debt Strategies | (0.02) | 2 per month | 0.25 | (0.08) | 0.71 | (0.58) | 1.86 | |
| IFN | India Closed | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 1.48 | (1.68) | 5.55 | |
| DHTYX | Diamond Hill All | (0.13) | 1 per month | 0.64 | 0.11 | 1.92 | (1.51) | 9.88 | |
| MUJ | Blackrock Muniholdings New | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.68 | (0.67) | 2.30 | |
| LCORX | Leuthold E Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.77 | (0.61) | 7.65 | |
| MHD | Blackrock Muniholdings Closed | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.39 | (0.12) | 0.85 | (0.61) | 1.96 | |
| TRRWX | T Rowe Price | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.66 | (0.57) | 5.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Adams Natural
For every potential investor in Adams, whether a beginner or expert, Adams Natural's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adams Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adams. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adams Natural's price trends.Adams Natural Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Adams Natural fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Adams Natural could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Adams Natural by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adams Natural Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adams Natural fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adams Natural shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adams Natural fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Adams Natural Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Adams Natural Risk Indicators
The analysis of Adams Natural's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adams Natural's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adams fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8496 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6493 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.06 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4216 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.96) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Adams Natural
The number of cover stories for Adams Natural depends on current market conditions and Adams Natural's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Adams Natural is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Adams Natural's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Adams Fund
Adams Natural financial ratios help investors to determine whether Adams Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Adams with respect to the benefits of owning Adams Natural security.
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