PRUDENTIAL EMERGING Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PDHCX Fund | USD 7.16 0.06 0.85% |
Prudential Emerging Markets's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for PRUDENTIAL EMERGING. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for PRUDENTIAL EMERGING.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Prudential Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 7.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.06.When Prudential Emerging Markets prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Prudential Emerging Markets trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent PRUDENTIAL EMERGING observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Prudential Emerging Markets are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Prudential Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 7.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.06 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PRUDENTIAL Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PRUDENTIAL EMERGING's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Prudential Emerging Markets focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 6.82 on the downside to about 7.50 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PRUDENTIAL EMERGING mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PRUDENTIAL EMERGING mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.001 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0177 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0024 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for PRUDENTIAL EMERGING
Bollinger Bands applied to PRUDENTIAL Mutual Fund price data measure how far PRUDENTIAL has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to PRUDENTIAL EMERGING's price data. On-balance volume for PRUDENTIAL Mutual Fund creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in PRUDENTIAL. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for PRUDENTIAL EMERGING's.PRUDENTIAL EMERGING Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of PRUDENTIAL EMERGING within the Emerging Markets Bond space and offer context for ranking and strength. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across PRUDENTIAL EMERGING's peer group. Firms that trade at big discounts to peers on core metrics may be worth more research.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PRUDENTIAL EMERGING Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Prudential Emerging Markets, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around Prudential Emerging Markets positions. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in PRUDENTIAL EMERGING. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around Prudential Emerging Markets.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.16 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.06 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.54 |
PRUDENTIAL EMERGING Risk Indicators
Analyzing PRUDENTIAL EMERGING's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for prudential mutual fund. By identifying the level of risk embedded in PRUDENTIAL EMERGING's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing PRUDENTIAL EMERGING's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in PRUDENTIAL EMERGING's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2308 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3263 | |||
| Variance | 0.1065 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PRUDENTIAL EMERGING
Coverage intensity for Prudential Emerging Markets matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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