PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| PCPCX Fund | USD 6.92 0.05 0.73% |
PIMCO Moditiesplus Strategy's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PIMCO Moditiesplus Strategy on the next trading day is expected to be 6.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.01.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older PIMCO Moditiesplus Strategy observations. All Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for PIMCO Moditiesplus Strategy are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PIMCO Moditiesplus Strategy on the next trading day is expected to be 6.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.01 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PIMCO Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS | PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting PIMCO Moditiesplus Strategy for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 5.52 and upside around 8.40 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0149 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.068 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.0092 |
Other Forecasting Options for PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS
Bollinger Bands applied to PIMCO Mutual Fund price data measure how far PIMCO has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS's price data. On-balance volume for PIMCO Mutual Fund creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in PIMCO. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS's.PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS within the Commodities Broad Basket space and offer context for ranking and strength. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS Market Strength Events
For investors tracking PIMCO Moditiesplus Strategy, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell PIMCO Moditiesplus Strategy. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around PIMCO Moditiesplus Strategy.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.025 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 72.49 |
PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS Risk Indicators
Analyzing PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for pimco mutual fund. By identifying the level of risk embedded in PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Variance | 2.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.33 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.34 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PIMCO COMMODITIESPLUS
The amount of media and story coverage tied to PIMCO Moditiesplus Strategy can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.