PACE MUNICIPAL Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| PCMNX Fund | USD 12.40 0.01 0.08% |
Pace Municipal Fixed's Simple Moving Average reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics derived from daily trading data. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Pace Municipal Fixed on the next trading day is expected to be 12.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.82.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Pace Municipal Fixed price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of PACE MUNICIPAL. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average forecast data for Pace Municipal Fixed is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Pace Municipal Fixed on the next trading day is expected to be 12.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.82 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PACE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PACE MUNICIPAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
Forecasting Pace Municipal Fixed for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The current forecast range spans downside near 12.28 and upside near 12.52.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PACE MUNICIPAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PACE MUNICIPAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 106.5439 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0031 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0138 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0011 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.815 |
Other Forecasting Options for PACE MUNICIPAL
The movement of PACE price is the central consideration for investors deciding whether to enter or hold a position. Noise in PACE Mutual Fund price charts can make it difficult to distinguish meaningful trends from random fluctuations.PACE MUNICIPAL Related Equities
The following equities are related to PACE MUNICIPAL within the Muni National Interm space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing PACE MUNICIPAL against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PACE MUNICIPAL Market Strength Events
Investors use market strength indicators for PACE MUNICIPAL to evaluate how the mutual fund performs relative to broader market trends. These indicators support more precise timing of Pace Municipal Fixed positions, helping investors maximize return and minimize poorly-timed trades.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.9 |
PACE MUNICIPAL Risk Indicators
A careful analysis of PACE MUNICIPAL's basic risk indicators helps investors understand the risk environment surrounding pace mutual fund. This understanding is an essential input for forecasting PACE MUNICIPAL's future price and for deciding how to manage the associated investment risk.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0764 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.0347 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1201 | |||
| Variance | 0.0144 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.094 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0012 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.09 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PACE MUNICIPAL
Story coverage around Pace Municipal Fixed often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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