PBF Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| PBF Stock | USD 37.85 -5.40 -12.49% |
Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.70 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter -0.21 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.4651 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.2567 | Wall Street Target Price 33.4615 |
The hype-based view summarizes PBF Energy's price response to recent headlines and peer coverage. This section reviews PBF Energy's options positioning and short interest as sentiment context.
Short Interest for PBF Energy
An investor who is long PBF Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about PBF Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge PBF Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential.
200 Day MA 29.0227 | Short Percent 0.2733 | Short Ratio 6.11 | Shares Short Prior Month 19.9 M | 50 Day MA 33.2282 |
Relative Strength Index (RSI) for PBF
The Simple Regression forecasted value of PBF Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 38.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 114.19.PBF Energy Sentiment-to-Price Pattern
News-driven sentiment around PBF Energy often diverges from its fundamental value. Tracking the gap between PBF Energy's news sentiment and price action can identify arbitrage opportunities that close as the market digests available information.
Contrarian investors seek out stocks where sentiment has diverged from fundamental value. For PBF Energy, tracking the sentiment-to-price relationship can highlight periods where crowd behavior has overshot fair value.
PBF Energy Implied Volatility | 1.44 |
PBF Energy's implied volatility is a forward-looking measure derived from PBF Energy's option prices. It represents the market's consensus expectation of how much PBF Energy's stock will move over a given period - regardless of direction.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of PBF Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 38.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 114.19.PBF Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 43.25 |
This hype view sits alongside price forecasting, technical analysis, analyst consensus, earnings estimates, and momentum indicators.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of PBF Energy to cross-verify projections for PBF Energy. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 for the current PBF contract - Market Context
Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 0.09% for the 2026-03-20 options. At a recent price around USD 37.85, the implied daily move is approximately USD 0.0341 , which is informational only.
Open Interest Across 2026-03-20 PBF Option Contracts
For PBF Energy, open interest represents outstanding option contracts and offers a snapshot of market participation and positioning.
PBF Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PBF price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PBF using various technical indicators. When you analyze PBF charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PBF Energy Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 10th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of PBF Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 38.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.87 , mean absolute percentage error of 5.85 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 114.19 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PBF Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PBF Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PBF Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PBF Energy | PBF Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
PBF Energy Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for PBF Energy uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PBF Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PBF Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.8765 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.872 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0578 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 114.1933 |
Mean reversion is the tendency of PBF Energy's price to return to its historical average after periods of extreme deviation. Investors who identify when PBF Energy's is significantly above or below its mean may find compelling entry or exit opportunities.
PBF Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
This probability density chart for PBF Energy shows how predicted future prices are distributed across a range of outcomes. Wider distributions reflect higher uncertainty, while narrow distributions indicate greater consensus about PBF Energy's likely price range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PBF Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical news analysis for PBF Energy provides statistically derived price boundaries for the session following a significant headline. PBF Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.08 and 47.42, respectively. These boundaries are derived from PBF Energy's past price reactions to comparable news events, not forward-looking forecasts.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to PBF Energy assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
PBF Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PBF Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PBF Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PBF Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 4.50 | 0.74 | 0.19 | 11 Events | 8 Events | In 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
37.85 | 43.25 | 0.00 |
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PBF Energy Hype Timeline
On the 9th of March PBF Energy is traded for 37.85. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.74, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.19. PBF is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.42%. %. The volatility of related hype on PBF Energy is about 971.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 38.04. About 25.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.95. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. PBF Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.51. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.39. The firm last dividend was issued on the 25th of February 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 11 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of PBF Energy to cross-verify projections for PBF Energy. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.PBF Energy Related Hype Analysis
Monitoring how PBF Energy's competitors respond to market-moving news provides a leading indicator for how PBF Energy itself may react to similar events. Peer hype analysis captures this cross-asset sentiment signal.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VVV | Valvoline | 0.10 | 11 per month | 1.46 | 0.12 | 3.36 | -2.46 | 10.00 | |
| UGP | Ultrapar Participacoes SA | 0.01 | 7 per month | 2.20 | 0.17 | 3.25 | -2.80 | 13.99 | |
| CVI | CVR Energy | -0.39 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.10 | 5.17 | -4.49 | 19.03 | |
| CRC | California Resources Corp | -0.22 | 9 per month | 1.54 | 0.23 | 3.76 | -3.17 | 8.47 | |
| VAL | Valaris | 6.19 | 11 per month | 2.58 | 0.14 | 7.22 | -6.28 | 41.60 | |
| MUR | Murphy Oil | -0.05 | 10 per month | 2.91 | 0.06 | 5.04 | -4.16 | 19.82 | |
| MGY | Magnolia Oil Gas | 0.19 | 7 per month | 1.47 | 0.19 | 3.08 | -2.91 | 8.43 | |
| RIG | Transocean | 0.08 | 10 per month | 2.61 | 0.15 | 7.67 | -4.73 | 16.41 | |
| UUUU | Energy Fuels | -0.63 | 12 per month | 5.39 | 0.10 | 10.73 | -9.81 | 29.43 | |
| GLNG | Golar LNG Limited | -0.65 | 6 per month | 1.09 | 0.23 | 2.85 | -2.10 | 8.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for PBF Energy
For investors of all experience levels considering PBF, understanding PBF Energy's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. PBF Stock price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.PBF Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PBF Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PBF Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PBF Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PBF Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for PBF Energy stock provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading PBF Energy.
PBF Energy Risk Indicators
Assessing PBF Energy's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding PBF Energy's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.08 | |||
| Variance | 16.68 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.75 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PBF Energy
Coverage intensity for PBF Energy matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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PBF Energy Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to PBF Energy matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 527.9 M |
More Resources for PBF Stock Analysis
A structured review of PBF Energy often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Ratio context helps frame profitability, efficiency, and growth trends for Pbf Energy Stock. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for Pbf Energy Stock:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of PBF Energy to cross-verify projections for PBF Energy. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set. For more detail on how to invest in PBF Stock please use our How to Invest in PBF Energy guide.Analysis related to PBF Energy should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.70 | Dividend Share 1.1 | Earnings Share -1.39 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth -0.03 |
The market value of PBF Energy is measured differently than book value, which reflects PBF accounting equity. Intrinsic value is an estimate of what PBF Energy's fundamentals imply, and it may differ from market and book figures. External forces such as sentiment and macro conditions can shift prices away from fundamental signals. Analytical frameworks help compare those viewpoints.
Note that PBF Energy's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. Evaluation typically reviews profitability, growth, balance sheet strength, industry position, and market signals. The quoted price is simply the exchange level where supply meets demand.