Prosperity Bancshares Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PB Stock  USD 65.98  1.29  1.99%   
Prosperity Bancshares's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data reflects the model's output when applied to available daily price observations. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Prosperity Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 65.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.67.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Prosperity Bancshares forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Prosperity Bancshares observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference values for Prosperity Bancshares are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only.
Prosperity Bancshares simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Prosperity Bancshares are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Prosperity Bancshares prices get older.

Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Prosperity Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 65.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.58 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.67 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Prosperity Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Prosperity Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

Forecasting Prosperity Bancshares for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 64.19 on the downside to about 67.77 on the upside.
Market Value
65.98
65.98
Expected Value
67.77
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Prosperity Bancshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Prosperity Bancshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5681
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.068
MADMean absolute deviation0.8798
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0126
SAESum of the absolute errors53.67
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Prosperity Bancshares forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Prosperity Bancshares observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Prosperity Bancshares

Relative Strength Index values for Prosperity measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in Prosperity Bancshares' returns helps calibrate position size and stop-loss levels. Candlestick pattern analysis of Prosperity Stock daily data can reveal short-term reversal or continuation signals.

Prosperity Bancshares Related Equities

These stocks within the Financials space are often compared to Prosperity Bancshares by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Market cap and total value checks frame Prosperity Bancshares' size within the competitive field.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Prosperity Bancshares Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how Prosperity Bancshares stock is positioned relative to trends. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Prosperity Bancshares. These signals help validate or refine position timing for Prosperity Bancshares.

Prosperity Bancshares Risk Indicators

The analysis of Prosperity Bancshares' risk metrics is one of the most important steps in projecting its future price. This process quantifies the risk associated with Prosperity Bancshares' and helps determine how to manage it. A structured analysis of Prosperity Bancshares' risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve forecast accuracy.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Prosperity Bancshares

A coverage review of Prosperity Bancshares shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.

Prosperity Bancshares Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Prosperity Bancshares can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding94.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments10.7 B

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