T Rowe Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PASUX Fund | USD 14.86 0.05 0.34% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference information for T Rowe summarizes the forecasted value and model error statistics based on historical price data. This data is provided for reference and analytical review.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 14.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.77.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting T Rowe Price forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent T Rowe observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. T Rowe's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference values are drawn from available trading data and are presented for informational reference only. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 14.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.77 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PASUX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T Rowe's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates T Rowe's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 14.00 and upside around 15.72 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T Rowe mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T Rowe mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0059 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0123 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0946 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0063 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for T Rowe
Investors evaluating PASUX at any level need to understand the significance of T Rowe's price movement for their investment outcomes. The presence of noise in PASUX Mutual Fund price charts demands careful analysis to avoid misinterpreting short-term fluctuations as trends.T Rowe Related Equities
The following equities are related to T Rowe within the Target-Date 2065+ space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing T Rowe against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T Rowe Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to T Rowe help investors evaluate how the mutual fund tracks overall market momentum and conditions. These signals are used to determine optimal timing for entering or exiting T Rowe Price positions.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.86 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.86 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.025 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.42 |
T Rowe Risk Indicators
The assessment of T Rowe's risk indicators plays a key role in forecasting its future price and managing investment exposure. Investors who measure T Rowe's risk profile carefully are better equipped to decide how to manage their positions.
| Mean Deviation | 0.616 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8153 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8451 | |||
| Variance | 0.7142 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8022 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6648 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.64 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T Rowe
Coverage intensity for T Rowe Price matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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