Pan American Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PAAS Stock | USD 48.38 -0.76 -1.55% |
This reference page presents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Pan American Silver. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pan American Silver on the next trading day is expected to be 48.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 115.99.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Pan American Silver forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Pan American observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Pan American Silver is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pan American Silver on the next trading day is expected to be 48.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.93 , mean absolute percentage error of 6.52 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 115.99 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pan American's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pan American | Pan American Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Pan American Silver focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 44.01 and upside near 52.75.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pan American stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pan American stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.148 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0885 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9332 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.034 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 115.99 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pan American
Pan American's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Pan often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Pan American Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Pan American within the Materials space and serve as useful points for comparison. Looking at Pan American's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pan American Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Pan American stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Pan American Silver.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 48.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 48.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.38 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.76 |
Pan American Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pan American's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Pan American's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.25 | |||
| Variance | 18.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 24.94 | |||
| Semi Variance | 23.95 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.90 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pan American
Story coverage around Pan American Silver often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.
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Pan American Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Pan American Silver is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 381.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
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