OReilly Automotive Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ORLY Stock | USD 98.88 0.10 0.10% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OReilly Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 98.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.55. OReilly Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of OReilly Automotive's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.126 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.7088 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.9713 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.3089 | Wall Street Target Price 108.72 |
Using OReilly Automotive hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of OReilly Automotive from the perspective of OReilly Automotive response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards OReilly Automotive using OReilly Automotive's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards OReilly using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of OReilly Automotive's stock price.
OReilly Automotive Short Interest
An investor who is long OReilly Automotive may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about OReilly Automotive and may potentially protect profits, hedge OReilly Automotive with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 96.3289 | Short Percent 0.0178 | Short Ratio 2.79 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.1 M | 50 Day MA 95.589 |
OReilly Automotive Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to OReilly Automotive's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in OReilly. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding OReilly can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around OReilly Automotive. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
OReilly Automotive Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
OReilly Automotive's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of OReilly Automotive stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if OReilly Automotive's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that OReilly Automotive stock will not fluctuate a lot when OReilly Automotive's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OReilly Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 98.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.55. OReilly Automotive after-hype prediction price | USD 98.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OReilly Automotive to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current OReilly contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that OReilly Automotive will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0294% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With OReilly Automotive trading at USD 98.88, that is roughly USD 0.029 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating OReilly Automotive's daily price movement you should consider acquiring OReilly Automotive options at the current volatility level of 0.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 OReilly Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast OReilly Automotive's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in OReilly Automotive's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for OReilly Automotive stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current OReilly Automotive's open interest, investors have to compare it to OReilly Automotive's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of OReilly Automotive is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in OReilly. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
OReilly Automotive Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine OReilly price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for OReilly using various technical indicators. When you analyze OReilly charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
OReilly Automotive Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OReilly Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 98.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94, mean absolute percentage error of 1.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OReilly Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OReilly Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
OReilly Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest OReilly Automotive | OReilly Automotive Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
OReilly Automotive Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting OReilly Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OReilly Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 97.57 and 100.19, respectively. We have considered OReilly Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OReilly Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OReilly Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7257 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0515 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9425 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0098 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 56.55 |
Predictive Modules for OReilly Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OReilly Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.OReilly Automotive After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of OReilly Automotive at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in OReilly Automotive or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of OReilly Automotive, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
OReilly Automotive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting OReilly Automotive's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on OReilly Automotive's historical news coverage. OReilly Automotive's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 97.56 and 100.20, respectively. We have considered OReilly Automotive's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
OReilly Automotive is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of OReilly Automotive is based on 3 months time horizon.
OReilly Automotive Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as OReilly Automotive is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading OReilly Automotive backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with OReilly Automotive, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.31 | 0.03 | 0.73 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
98.88 | 98.88 | 0.00 |
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OReilly Automotive Hype Timeline
OReilly Automotive is now traded for 98.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.73. OReilly is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on OReilly Automotive is about 10.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 99.61. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.19. OReilly Automotive had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 15:1 split on the 10th of June 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OReilly Automotive to cross-verify your projections.OReilly Automotive Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to OReilly Automotive's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict OReilly Automotive's future price movements. Getting to know how OReilly Automotive's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how OReilly Automotive may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AZO | AutoZone | 117.48 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.73 | (2.67) | 9.96 | |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc | (0.40) | 39 per month | 1.69 | 0.0002 | 2.66 | (2.53) | 8.82 | |
| RACE | Ferrari NV | (1.47) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.01 | (2.82) | 7.22 | |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises | (2.53) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.60 | (4.25) | 13.13 | |
| MAR | Marriott International | (1.37) | 9 per month | 1.01 | 0.14 | 3.48 | (1.63) | 8.46 | |
| NKE | Nike Inc | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.87 | (3.07) | 14.43 | |
| GM | General Motors | (0.18) | 5 per month | 1.00 | 0.17 | 4.01 | (2.41) | 18.60 | |
| CVNA | Carvana Co | 7.09 | 9 per month | 3.88 | 0.13 | 6.78 | (6.31) | 19.22 | |
| SBUX | Starbucks | 0.89 | 6 per month | 1.44 | 0.05 | 3.35 | (2.53) | 8.04 | |
| HLT | Hilton Worldwide Holdings | 2.32 | 39 per month | 1.06 | 0.07 | 3.03 | (2.42) | 7.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for OReilly Automotive
For every potential investor in OReilly, whether a beginner or expert, OReilly Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OReilly Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OReilly. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OReilly Automotive's price trends.OReilly Automotive Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OReilly Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OReilly Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OReilly Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
OReilly Automotive Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OReilly Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OReilly Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OReilly Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OReilly Automotive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
OReilly Automotive Risk Indicators
The analysis of OReilly Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OReilly Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oreilly stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9967 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Variance | 1.77 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for OReilly Automotive
The number of cover stories for OReilly Automotive depends on current market conditions and OReilly Automotive's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that OReilly Automotive is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about OReilly Automotive's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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OReilly Automotive Short Properties
OReilly Automotive's future price predictability will typically decrease when OReilly Automotive's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of OReilly Automotive often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential OReilly Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OReilly Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 838.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 130.2 M |
Additional Tools for OReilly Stock Analysis
When running OReilly Automotive's price analysis, check to measure OReilly Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OReilly Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of OReilly Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OReilly Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OReilly Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OReilly Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.