Old Dominion Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ODFL Stock | USD 182.44 1.69 0.93% |
Momentum
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
This view maps Old Dominion Freight attention shifts to recent price behavior and peer activity. Sentiment signals for Old Dominion are framed using options positioning and short interest data.
Short Interest Profile - Old Dominion
Short interest in Old Dominion is a useful contrarian indicator. Extreme levels of short interest can precede sharp short-covering rallies if positive news surprises the market.
RSI Momentum View - Old
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Old Dominion Freight on the next trading day is expected to be 205.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 397.06.Old Dominion Freight Hype-to-Price View
Old Dominion's news sentiment aggregates headline tone and social media engagement to build a real-time gauge of investor psychology around Old. Sentiment extremes often precede price reversals.
The correlation between Old Dominion's news sentiment and price provides a measurable basis for market timing. A strong positive correlation suggests sentiment is currently driving price; a negative one may indicate a potential reversal.
Old Dominion Implied Volatility | 0.58 |
Unlike historical volatility, which measures past price movements, Old Dominion's implied volatility is a real-time gauge of how much uncertainty the options market is pricing into Old Dominion's future price action.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Old Dominion Freight on the next trading day is expected to be 205.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 397.06.Old Dominion after-hype prediction price | $ 182.44 |
This module presents attention signals alongside forecasting, technical analysis, analyst consensus, and earnings.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Dominion can be used to cross-verify projections for Old Dominion. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 Reference for the current Old contract
Rule 16 converts implied volatility into an estimated daily move of about 3.62% for 2026-05-15 options. With Old Dominion trading near $ 182.44, that translates to about $ 6.61 per day in either direction.
Open Interest View for Old 2026-05-15 Options
For Old Dominion, open interest represents outstanding option contracts and offers a snapshot of market participation and positioning.
Old Dominion Additional Predictive Modules
Predictive models for Old Dominion combine technical indicators with statistical methods to estimate probable price trajectories. Time-series models tend to perform better when fed clean, stationary data with consistent periodicity.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Old Dominion Freight on the next trading day is expected to be 205.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.51 , mean absolute percentage error of 81.00 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 397.06 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Old Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Old Dominion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Old Dominion | Old Dominion Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Old Dominion Freight uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Old Dominion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Old Dominion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.505 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.5092 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.035 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 397.0612 |
Mean reversion in Old Dominion's price occurs when temporary dislocations - caused by sentiment extremes, news events, or liquidity shocks - correct back toward the stock's historical fair value.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Understanding Old Dominion's probability distribution helps investors calibrate position size to their risk tolerance. The tails of the Old Dominion distribution capture low-probability but high-impact outcomes that naive point estimates ignore.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Using Old Dominion's historical news impact data, we estimate the likely price corridor for the next trading session after a significant headline. Old Dominion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 179.51 and 185.37, respectively. Note that past news reactions for Old Dominion are not guaranteed to repeat, particularly in novel market environments.
Current Value
The next after-hype price estimate for Old Dominion Freight is modeled on a 3 months horizon and is intended to show how price could normalize after sentiment pressure fades. Old Dominion is Very Low at this time.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Old Dominion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Old Dominion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Old Dominion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 2.93 | 1.05 | 0.68 | 11 Events | 8 Events | In 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
182.44 | 182.44 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
Old Dominion Freight is now traded for 182.44. The company has historical hype elasticity of 1.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.68. Old is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 80.94%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on Old Dominion is about 125.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 183.12. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.54. Old Dominion Freight had its last dividend issued on the 4th of March 2026. The company completed a 2:1 stock split on 28th of March 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 11 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Dominion can be used to cross-verify projections for Old Dominion. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Understanding how Old Dominion's direct competitors react to news events helps investors anticipate contagion effects and sector-wide sentiment shifts that may affect Old Dominion's performance.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EME | EMCOR Group | -11.50 | 11 per month | 2.16 | 0.12 | 3.24 | -3.49 | 13.44 | |
| EFX | Equifax | 3.00 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 3.42 | -4.75 | 16.21 | |
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA | 16.50 | 34 per month | 3.01 | 0.18 | 6.46 | -5.74 | 14.99 | |
| VLTO | Veralto | -0.1 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.06 | 2.34 | -2.41 | 8.72 | |
| WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake | 11.63 | 12 per month | 1.13 | 0.17 | 2.58 | -1.95 | 6.77 | |
| IR | Ingersoll Rand | 0.70 | 16 per month | 1.87 | 0.06 | 4.25 | -3.13 | 10.17 | |
| HUBB | Hubbell | 3.19 | 8 per month | 1.82 | 0.08 | 3.27 | -3.20 | 9.77 | |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corp | -6.45 | 8 per month | 6.18 | 0.11 | 10.73 | -12.14 | 29.08 | |
| UAL | United Airlines Holdings | 5.42 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 4.76 | -5.03 | 17.96 | |
| DOV | Dover | 0.90 | 9 per month | 1.43 | 0.10 | 2.96 | -2.59 | 7.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for Old Dominion
The price movement of Old is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. Old Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.Old Dominion Related Equities
The following equities are related to Old Dominion within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Old Dominion against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Old Dominion Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Old Dominion stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Old Dominion Freight.
Old Dominion Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Old Dominion is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Old Dominion's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.9 | |||
| Variance | 8.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.14 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Old Dominion
Coverage intensity for Old Dominion Freight matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Old Dominion Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Old Dominion Freight matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 209.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 120.1 M |
More Resources for Old Stock Analysis
Reviewing Old Dominion Freight commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Financial ratios provide a structured lens for assessing Old Dominion's profitability and growth trends. Below are reports that help frame Old Dominion Freight Stock in context:Historical Fundamental Analysis of Old Dominion can be used to cross-verify projections for Old Dominion. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set. Old Dominion at P/E 46.55 and ROE 23.93% (37.79 Billion market cap) - this analysis works best as a complementary layer when evaluating how the position fits in a broader portfolio. Those return and profitability levels shape the investment picture - the supplemental tools help investors decide if they are sustainable. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Old Dominion Freight's market price can diverge from book value, the accounting figure shown on Old's balance sheet. Old Dominion's market capitalization is 37.79 B. With a P/B ratio of 8.74, the market values Old Dominion well above its book equity. Enterprise value stands at 37.59 B. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
Note that Old Dominion's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For Old Dominion, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 46.55, a P/B ratio of 8.74, a profit margin of 18.63%, and ROE of 23.93%. By contrast, Old Dominion market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact.