Orica Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| OCLDY Stock | USD 12.62 -2.18 -14.73% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast reference data for Orica Ltd ADR is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Orica Ltd ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 12.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.24.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Orica Ltd ADR price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Orica. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future All Simple Moving Average forecast figures shown for Orica Ltd ADR are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Orica Ltd ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 12.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.59 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.24 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Orica Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Orica's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Orica | Orica Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Orica Ltd ADR uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Orica pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Orica pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.737 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1008 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3206 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0203 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.235 |
Other Forecasting Options for Orica
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering Orica needs to understand the dynamics of Orica's price movement. Price charts for Orica Pink Sheet contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.Orica Related Equities
The following equities are related to Orica within the Specialty Chemicals space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Orica against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Orica Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Orica enables investors to understand how the pink sheet performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Orica Ltd ADR.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.85 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.62 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -1.09 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -2.18 |
Orica Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Orica's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process quantifies the risk associated with Orica's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.96 | |||
| Variance | 15.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Orica
A coverage review of Orica Ltd ADR shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.
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Orica Short Properties
A short-interest review of Orica Ltd ADR provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 395.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
More Resources for Orica Pink Sheet Analysis
Other Information on Investing in Orica Pink Sheet
Financial ratios reflect how major financial figures connect within Orica. They frame financial performance across earnings, cash flow, and valuation.