Owens Corning Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

OC Stock  USD 108.95  1.05  0.97%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Owens Corning is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Owens Corning on the next trading day is expected to be 109.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 121.57.When Owens Corning prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Owens Corning trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Owens Corning observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Owens Corning are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Owens Corning works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Owens Corning on the next trading day is expected to be 109.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 6.83 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 121.57 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Owens Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Owens Corning's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Owens Corning's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 107.33 on the downside to about 111.61 on the upside.
Market Value
108.95
107.33
Downside
109.47
Expected Value
111.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Owens Corning stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Owens Corning stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1299
MADMean absolute deviation2.0262
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.017
SAESum of the absolute errors121.5726
When Owens Corning prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Owens Corning trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Owens Corning observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Owens Corning

Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering Owens needs to understand the dynamics of Owens Corning's price movement. Price charts for Owens Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Owens Corning Market Strength Events

Analyzing market strength indicators for Owens Corning enables investors to understand how the stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Owens Corning.

Owens Corning Risk Indicators

Identifying and analyzing Owens Corning's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with Owens Corning's and decide how to manage it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Owens Corning

Coverage intensity for Owens Corning matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Owens Corning Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Owens Corning matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding83.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments353 M

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