Origin Bancorp Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| OBK Stock | 40.54 0.63 1.58% |
Origin Bancorp's Simple Moving Average reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Origin Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 40.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.48.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Origin Bancorp price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Origin Bancorp. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average reference values for Origin Bancorp are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Origin Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 40.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.55 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.48 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Origin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Origin Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Origin Bancorp | Origin Bancorp Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Origin Bancorp focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 38.89 and upside around 42.19 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Origin Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Origin Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8289 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0528 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5675 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.485 |
Other Forecasting Options for Origin Bancorp
For investors of all experience levels considering Origin, understanding Origin Bancorp's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. Origin Stock price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.Origin Bancorp Related Equities
The following equities are related to Origin Bancorp within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Origin Bancorp against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Origin Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Origin Bancorp stock provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Origin Bancorp.
Origin Bancorp Risk Indicators
Assessing Origin Bancorp's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Origin Bancorp's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Variance | 2.56 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.14 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Origin Bancorp
Coverage intensity for Origin Bancorp matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Origin Bancorp Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Origin Bancorp can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 104.2 M |