Norfolk Southern Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| NSC Stock | USD 289.08 0.02 0.01% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norfolk Southern on the next trading day is expected to be 287.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 137.95. Norfolk Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Norfolk Southern stock prices and determine the direction of Norfolk Southern's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Norfolk Southern's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of Norfolk Southern's share price is at 51. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Norfolk Southern, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Norfolk Southern hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Norfolk Southern from the perspective of Norfolk Southern response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norfolk Southern on the next trading day is expected to be 287.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 137.95. Norfolk Southern after-hype prediction price | USD 289.08 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norfolk Southern to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Norfolk Stock refer to our How to Trade Norfolk Stock guide.Norfolk Southern Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Norfolk price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Norfolk using various technical indicators. When you analyze Norfolk charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Norfolk Southern Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norfolk Southern on the next trading day is expected to be 287.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.34, mean absolute percentage error of 8.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 137.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Norfolk Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Norfolk Southern's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Norfolk Southern Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Norfolk Southern | Norfolk Southern Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Norfolk Southern Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Norfolk Southern's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Norfolk Southern's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 286.90 and 289.05, respectively. We have considered Norfolk Southern's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Norfolk Southern stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Norfolk Southern stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.5009 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.3381 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0081 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 137.9458 |
Predictive Modules for Norfolk Southern
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Norfolk Southern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Norfolk Southern's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Norfolk Southern After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Norfolk Southern at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Norfolk Southern or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Norfolk Southern, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Norfolk Southern Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Norfolk Southern's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Norfolk Southern's historical news coverage. Norfolk Southern's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 288.00 and 290.16, respectively. We have considered Norfolk Southern's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Norfolk Southern is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Norfolk Southern is based on 3 months time horizon.
Norfolk Southern Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Norfolk Southern is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Norfolk Southern backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Norfolk Southern, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
289.08 | 289.08 | 0.00 |
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Norfolk Southern Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January Norfolk Southern is traded for 289.08. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Norfolk is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Norfolk Southern is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 289.08. About 78.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Norfolk Southern was now reported as 67.48. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.1. Norfolk Southern last dividend was issued on the 7th of November 2025. The entity had 3:1 split on the 10th of October 1997. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norfolk Southern to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Norfolk Stock refer to our How to Trade Norfolk Stock guide.Norfolk Southern Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Norfolk Southern's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Norfolk Southern's future price movements. Getting to know how Norfolk Southern's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Norfolk Southern may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CSX | CSX Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.76 | (2.04) | 5.63 | |
| CP | Canadian Pacific Railway | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.48 | (2.05) | 6.94 | |
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.22 | (0) | 2.27 | (1.65) | 6.71 | |
| RSG | Republic Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.74 | (1.50) | 4.33 | |
| CMI | Cummins | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.05 | 0.24 | 2.87 | (2.27) | 9.83 | |
| FDX | FedEx | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.58 | 0.23 | 2.58 | (1.16) | 7.76 | |
| URI | United Rentals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.46 | (0.01) | 3.90 | (2.74) | 7.39 | |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | 0 | 2.40 | (2.12) | 6.22 | |
| PWR | Quanta Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.47 | 0.01 | 2.91 | (5.00) | 9.63 | |
| PCAR | PACCAR Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.76 | 0.17 | 3.68 | (1.63) | 7.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for Norfolk Southern
For every potential investor in Norfolk, whether a beginner or expert, Norfolk Southern's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Norfolk Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Norfolk. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Norfolk Southern's price trends.Norfolk Southern Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Norfolk Southern stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Norfolk Southern could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Norfolk Southern by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Norfolk Southern Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Norfolk Southern stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Norfolk Southern shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Norfolk Southern stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Norfolk Southern entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10683.18 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.01) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 289.83 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 289.58 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.77) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.16 |
Norfolk Southern Risk Indicators
The analysis of Norfolk Southern's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Norfolk Southern's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting norfolk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7778 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Variance | 1.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.83) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Norfolk Southern
The number of cover stories for Norfolk Southern depends on current market conditions and Norfolk Southern's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Norfolk Southern is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Norfolk Southern's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Norfolk Southern Short Properties
Norfolk Southern's future price predictability will typically decrease when Norfolk Southern's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Norfolk Southern often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Norfolk Southern's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Norfolk Southern's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 226.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norfolk Southern to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Norfolk Stock refer to our How to Trade Norfolk Stock guide.You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Norfolk Southern. If investors know Norfolk will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Norfolk Southern listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Norfolk Southern is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Norfolk that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Norfolk Southern's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Norfolk Southern's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Norfolk Southern's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Norfolk Southern's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Norfolk Southern's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Norfolk Southern is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Norfolk Southern's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.