NOS SGPS Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NOS Stock | EUR 5.39 0.04 0.75% |
This page provides reference data for NOS SGPS using Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NOS SGPS SA on the next trading day is expected to be 5.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.37.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting NOS SGPS SA forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent NOS SGPS observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for NOS SGPS presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NOS SGPS SA on the next trading day is expected to be 5.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.37 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NOS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NOS SGPS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for NOS SGPS SA focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 3.70 on the downside to about 7.08 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NOS SGPS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NOS SGPS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1982 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0228 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0552 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for NOS SGPS
For investors considering NOS, NOS SGPS's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in NOS Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.NOS SGPS Related Equities
The following equities are related to NOS SGPS within the Communication Services space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing NOS SGPS against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NOS SGPS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for NOS SGPS provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in NOS SGPS SA.
NOS SGPS Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of NOS SGPS's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in NOS SGPS's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9654 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.932 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NOS SGPS
Coverage intensity for NOS SGPS SA matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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