Northrop Grumman Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| NOC Stock | USD 690.31 -0.90 -0.13% |
Northrop Grumman's Simple Moving Average reference data reflects the model's output when applied to available daily price observations. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations. This information is intended as reference material for analytical purposes.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Northrop Grumman on the next trading day is expected to be 690.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 732.26.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Northrop Grumman price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Northrop Grumman. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average reference values for Northrop Grumman are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Northrop Grumman on the next trading day is expected to be 690.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.41 , mean absolute percentage error of 255.10 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 732.26 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Northrop Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Northrop Grumman's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Northrop Grumman | Northrop Grumman Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Northrop Grumman for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 688.67 on the downside to about 692.85 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Northrop Grumman stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Northrop Grumman stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9764 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.9696 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 12.4111 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0183 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 732.255 |
Other Forecasting Options for Northrop Grumman
Relative Strength Index values for Northrop measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in Northrop Grumman's returns helps calibrate position size and stop-loss levels. Candlestick pattern analysis of Northrop Stock daily data can reveal short-term reversal or continuation signals. Identifying these patterns in Northrop Stock data supports better trade timing.Northrop Grumman Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Northrop Grumman within the Industrials space and serve as useful points for comparison. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Northrop Grumman's relative financial strength.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Northrop Grumman Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how Northrop Grumman stock is positioned relative to trends. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Northrop Grumman. These signals help validate or refine position timing for Northrop Grumman. Review these indicators alongside Northrop Grumman's fundamental data for a complete analytical picture.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 690.31 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 690.31 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.45 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.90 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.77 |
Northrop Grumman Risk Indicators
The analysis of Northrop Grumman's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in projecting its future price. This process quantifies the risk associated with Northrop Grumman's and helps determine how to manage it. A structured analysis of Northrop Grumman's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve forecast accuracy. Investors who carefully evaluate the risks in Northrop Grumman's are better positioned to make informed decisions.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.37 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.77 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Northrop Grumman
A coverage review of Northrop Grumman shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Northrop Grumman Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Northrop Grumman can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 143.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.4 B |