Navios Maritime Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NMM Stock | USD 59.90 1.00 1.70% |
Navios Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Navios Maritime's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Navios Maritime's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Navios Maritime fundamentals over time.
The value of relative strength index of Navios Maritime's share price is above 70 as of now. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Navios, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.40) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.25 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.5 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.6 | Wall Street Target Price 73 |
Using Navios Maritime hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Navios Maritime Partners from the perspective of Navios Maritime response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Navios Maritime using Navios Maritime's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Navios using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Navios Maritime's stock price.
Navios Maritime Short Interest
An investor who is long Navios Maritime may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Navios Maritime and may potentially protect profits, hedge Navios Maritime with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 44.7618 | Short Percent 0.019 | Short Ratio 3.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 303.6 K | 50 Day MA 53.3852 |
Navios Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Navios Maritime Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 59.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.41.Navios Maritime Partners Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Navios Maritime's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Navios. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Navios can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Navios Maritime Partners. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Navios Maritime's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Navios Maritime.
Navios Maritime Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Navios Maritime's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Navios Maritime Partners stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Navios Maritime's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Navios Maritime stock will not fluctuate a lot when Navios Maritime's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Navios Maritime Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 59.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.41. Navios Maritime after-hype prediction price | USD 58.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navios Maritime to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Navios contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Navios Maritime Partners will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Navios Maritime trading at USD 59.9, that is roughly USD 0.0198 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Navios Maritime's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Navios Maritime Partners options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Navios Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Navios Maritime's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Navios Maritime's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Navios Maritime stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Navios Maritime's open interest, investors have to compare it to Navios Maritime's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Navios Maritime is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Navios. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Navios Maritime Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Navios price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Navios using various technical indicators. When you analyze Navios charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Navios Maritime Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Navios Maritime Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 59.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Navios Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Navios Maritime's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Navios Maritime Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Navios Maritime | Navios Maritime Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Navios Maritime Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Navios Maritime's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Navios Maritime's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.35 and 61.44, respectively. We have considered Navios Maritime's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Navios Maritime stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Navios Maritime stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9194 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2034 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6734 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0126 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.405 |
Predictive Modules for Navios Maritime
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Navios Maritime Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Navios Maritime After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Navios Maritime at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Navios Maritime or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Navios Maritime, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Navios Maritime Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Navios Maritime's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Navios Maritime's historical news coverage. Navios Maritime's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 57.26 and 60.36, respectively. We have considered Navios Maritime's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Navios Maritime is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Navios Maritime Partners is based on 3 months time horizon.
Navios Maritime Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Navios Maritime is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Navios Maritime backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Navios Maritime, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 1.55 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
59.90 | 58.81 | 0.15 |
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Navios Maritime Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Navios Maritime Partners is traded for 59.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Navios is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 58.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Navios Maritime is about 599.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 59.81. About 30.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.52. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Navios Maritime Partners recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.73. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. The firm had 1:15 split on the 21st of May 2019. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navios Maritime to cross-verify your projections.Navios Maritime Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Navios Maritime's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Navios Maritime's future price movements. Getting to know how Navios Maritime's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Navios Maritime may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DAC | Danaos | 0.18 | 10 per month | 0.71 | 0.17 | 2.47 | (1.62) | 5.60 | |
| CMRE | Costamare | (0.13) | 11 per month | 1.15 | 0.28 | 3.17 | (2.06) | 8.57 | |
| GSL | Global Ship Lease | (0.06) | 12 per month | 1.00 | 0.20 | 2.89 | (2.24) | 12.98 | |
| ESEA | Euroseas | (2.08) | 9 per month | 2.62 | (0.01) | 3.87 | (3.78) | 13.57 | |
| CCEC | Capital Clean Energy | (0.13) | 7 per month | 2.15 | (0.03) | 3.21 | (3.83) | 8.72 | |
| SB | Safe Bulkers | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.04 | 0.14 | 3.34 | (1.72) | 13.45 | |
| SBLK | Star Bulk Carriers | 0.48 | 8 per month | 1.78 | 0.15 | 3.15 | (2.54) | 9.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for Navios Maritime
For every potential investor in Navios, whether a beginner or expert, Navios Maritime's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Navios Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Navios. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Navios Maritime's price trends.Navios Maritime Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Navios Maritime stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Navios Maritime could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Navios Maritime by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Navios Maritime Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Navios Maritime stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Navios Maritime shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Navios Maritime stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Navios Maritime Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Navios Maritime Risk Indicators
The analysis of Navios Maritime's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Navios Maritime's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting navios stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Variance | 2.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.67 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Navios Maritime
The number of cover stories for Navios Maritime depends on current market conditions and Navios Maritime's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Navios Maritime is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Navios Maritime's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Navios Maritime Short Properties
Navios Maritime's future price predictability will typically decrease when Navios Maritime's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Navios Maritime Partners often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Navios Maritime's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Navios Maritime's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 282.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navios Maritime to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Is Cargo Ground Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Navios Maritime. If investors know Navios will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Navios Maritime listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.40) | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share 8.73 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.018 |
The market value of Navios Maritime Partners is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Navios that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Navios Maritime's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Navios Maritime's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Navios Maritime's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Navios Maritime's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Navios Maritime's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Navios Maritime is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Navios Maritime's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.