NewJersey Resources Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| NJR Stock | USD 54.32 0.41 0.76% |
Momentum
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.88 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.6467 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.2785 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.4295 | Wall Street Target Price 55 |
This view aligns NewJersey Resources' headline activity with price response and peer context. This module summarizes sentiment around NewJersey Resources using options and short interest metrics.
NewJersey Resources Short Interest Context
NewJersey Resources' short float - the percentage of the float sold short - indicates how crowded the bearish trade has become. A high short float increases the risk of a short squeeze.
200 Day MA 47.2461 | Short Percent 0.0293 | Short Ratio 3.86 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.4 M | 50 Day MA 50.4742 |
Relative Strength (RSI) - NewJersey
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NewJersey Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 54.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.25.NewJersey Resources Attention vs Price Pattern
Market psychology around NewJersey Resources is captured in the flow of news and social commentary. Periods of extreme positive or negative sentiment in NewJersey Resources' headlines often signal impending price corrections.
The gap between NewJersey Resources' sentiment score and its recent price trend is a useful signal for identifying mispriced stocks. A positive sentiment score in a declining stock may indicate a pending recovery.
NewJersey Resources Implied Volatility | 0.71 |
Tracking NewJersey Resources' implied volatility over time reveals how the options market shifts between periods of complacency and fear regarding NewJersey Resources's outlook. A sudden spike often coincides with a specific catalyst or news event.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NewJersey Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 54.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.25.NewJersey Resources after-hype prediction price | $ 53.79 |
This view adds attention context to forecasting, technical signals, analyst estimates, and earnings data.
NewJersey | Build AI portfolio with NewJersey Stock |
Rule 16 Overview for current NewJersey contract - Market Context
Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 0.0444% across the 2026-05-15 option cycle. At a recent price around $ 54.32, the implied daily move is approximately $ 0.0241 , which is informational only.
Open Interest Profile for NewJersey 2026-05-15 Contracts
Open interest tracks live contract counts on NewJersey Resources options and provides positioning context for volatility review.
NewJersey Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NewJersey price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NewJersey using various technical indicators. When you analyze NewJersey charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NewJersey Resources Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NewJersey Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 54.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.30 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.25 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NewJersey Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NewJersey Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NewJersey Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NewJersey Resources | NewJersey Resources Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
NewJersey Resources Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for NewJersey Resources uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NewJersey Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NewJersey Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0757 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3941 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.253 |
Statistical evidence for mean reversion in NewJersey Resources' can be observed through its tendency to revert following periods of extreme overvaluation or undervaluation relative to peers or its own historical range.
NewJersey Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis
This chart illustrates the range of possible NewJersey Resources price outcomes given current market conditions and historical patterns. The distribution of NewJersey Resources' predicted prices is derived from Monte Carlo simulations calibrated to NewJersey Resources's realized volatility.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NewJersey Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The projected after-hype price range for NewJersey Resources is derived entirely from NewJersey Resources' historical news coverage and subsequent market behavior. NewJersey Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.75 and 54.83, respectively. No fundamental valuation inputs are used in this model; it is a purely empirical, backward-looking approach for NewJersey Resources.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to NewJersey Resources assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
NewJersey Resources Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NewJersey Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NewJersey Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NewJersey Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 1.04 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 7 Events | 6 Events | In 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
54.32 | 53.79 | 0.22 |
|
NewJersey Resources Hype Timeline
On the 12th of March 2026 NewJersey Resources is traded for 54.32. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. NewJersey is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 53.79. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on NewJersey Resources is about 252.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 54.44. About 79.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of NewJersey Resources was now reported as 23.8. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.17. NewJersey Resources last dividend was issued on the 11th of March 2026. The company completed a 2:1 stock split on 4th of March 2015. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 7 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of NewJersey Resources can be used to cross-verify projections for NewJersey Resources. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.NewJersey Resources Related Hype Analysis
Analyzing NewJersey Resources' peer hype data reveals which competitors are most likely to influence NewJersey Resources's short-term price. High hype elasticity between NewJersey Resources and a peer indicates a strong market linkage.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NWN | Northwest Natural Gas | 2.46 | 7 per month | 0.74 | 0.17 | 1.70 | -1.83 | 6.79 | |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | 1.48 | 10 per month | 1.32 | 0.02 | 2.05 | -2.41 | 6.96 | |
| OGS | One Gas | -0.43 | 9 per month | 0.81 | 0.16 | 1.59 | -1.48 | 4.32 | |
| NI | NiSource | 0.59 | 11 per month | 0.86 | 0.18 | 1.28 | -1.31 | 5.63 | |
| UGI | UGI Corporation | 0.14 | 7 per month | 1.43 | 0.02 | 1.65 | -1.39 | 8.76 | |
| SWX | Southwest Gas Holdings | -1.55 | 8 per month | 0.83 | 0.17 | 1.92 | -1.68 | 5.13 | |
| NWE | NorthWestern | 0.84 | 9 per month | 1.21 | 0.05 | 1.75 | -2.12 | 5.72 | |
| NFG | National Fuel Gas | -0.24 | 9 per month | 0.84 | 0.19 | 2.02 | -1.62 | 5.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for NewJersey Resources
The price behavior of NewJersey is a primary concern for any investor, beginner or expert, evaluating it as an investment. NewJersey Stock price charts can be cluttered with noise that obscures the underlying trend.NewJersey Resources Related Equities
The following equities are related to NewJersey Resources within the Utilities space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing NewJersey Resources against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NewJersey Resources Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of NewJersey Resources stock allows investors to gauge how the security tracks and reacts to shifts in market momentum. These indicators are particularly useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in NewJersey Resources.
NewJersey Resources Risk Indicators
Understanding NewJersey Resources' risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price with reasonable accuracy. Quantifying the risk involved in NewJersey Resources' allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7272 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6774 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Variance | 1.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4588 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.82 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NewJersey Resources
Coverage intensity for NewJersey Resources matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
NewJersey Resources Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to NewJersey Resources matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 100.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.5 M |
Additional Tools for NewJersey Stock Analysis
| Sync Your Broker Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors. | |
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| FinTech Suite Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities |