Allianzgi Equity Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

NIE Fund  USD 24.97  0.05  0.20%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allianzgi Equity Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 24.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.34. Allianzgi Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Allianzgi Equity stock prices and determine the direction of Allianzgi Equity Convertible's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Allianzgi Equity's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Allianzgi Equity's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Allianzgi Equity's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Allianzgi Equity and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Allianzgi Equity's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Allianzgi Equity Convertible, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Allianzgi Equity hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allianzgi Equity Convertible from the perspective of Allianzgi Equity response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allianzgi Equity Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 24.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.34.

Allianzgi Equity after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 24.92  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allianzgi Equity to cross-verify your projections.

Allianzgi Equity Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Allianzgi price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allianzgi using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allianzgi charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Allianzgi Equity - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Allianzgi Equity prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Allianzgi Equity price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Allianzgi Equity Con.

Allianzgi Equity Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Allianzgi Equity Convertible on the next trading day is expected to be 24.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.34.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allianzgi Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allianzgi Equity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Allianzgi Equity Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Allianzgi EquityAllianzgi Equity Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Allianzgi Equity Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Allianzgi Equity's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allianzgi Equity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.27 and 25.69, respectively. We have considered Allianzgi Equity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.97
24.98
Expected Value
25.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allianzgi Equity fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allianzgi Equity fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0024
MADMean absolute deviation0.1414
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0058
SAESum of the absolute errors8.34
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Allianzgi Equity observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Allianzgi Equity Convertible observations.

Predictive Modules for Allianzgi Equity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allianzgi Equity Con. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.2124.9225.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.0624.7725.48
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
23.7124.4925.27
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Allianzgi Equity

For every potential investor in Allianzgi, whether a beginner or expert, Allianzgi Equity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allianzgi Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allianzgi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allianzgi Equity's price trends.

Allianzgi Equity Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allianzgi Equity fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allianzgi Equity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allianzgi Equity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allianzgi Equity Con Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allianzgi Equity's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allianzgi Equity's current price.

Allianzgi Equity Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allianzgi Equity fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allianzgi Equity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allianzgi Equity fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Allianzgi Equity Convertible entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Allianzgi Equity Risk Indicators

The analysis of Allianzgi Equity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allianzgi Equity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allianzgi fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Allianzgi Fund

Allianzgi Equity financial ratios help investors to determine whether Allianzgi Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Allianzgi with respect to the benefits of owning Allianzgi Equity security.
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