Anglo American Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Regression
| NGLOY Stock | USD 20.50 -0.41 -1.96% |
The forecast reference data for Anglo American on this page is generated using Simple Regression applied to historical price observations. Projected values and error measures are included as reference material.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Anglo American PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 23.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.14.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Anglo American PLC historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. The Simple Regression reference values for Anglo American are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Anglo American PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 23.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.40 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 82.14 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Anglo Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Anglo American's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Anglo American | Anglo American Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Anglo American PLC uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Anglo American pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Anglo American pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.8237 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3248 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0593 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 82.135 |
Other Forecasting Options for Anglo American
Investors at all stages of experience who consider Anglo must develop an understanding of Anglo American's price dynamics. The noise embedded in Anglo Pink Sheet price charts can create misleading signals and skew investment decisions.View Anglo American's Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Anglo American Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Anglo American pink sheet give investors a structured view of the security's momentum relative to the overall market. Using these indicators, traders can refine their timing when entering or exiting positions in Anglo American PLC.
Anglo American Risk Indicators
Evaluating Anglo American's risk indicators is an important step in accurately forecasting its price and assessing the suitability of an investment. Understanding the risk profile of Anglo American's allows investors to make more informed decisions about position sizing and risk.
| Mean Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Variance | 7.72 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.11 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Anglo American
Story coverage around Anglo American PLC often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Financial ratios for Anglo American provide valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare Anglo across valuation measures in a consistent way.