NGL Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NGL Stock | USD 11.45 0.25 2.23% |
Momentum
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.60 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.21 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.34 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.82 | Wall Street Target Price 5 |
This section relates NGL Energy Partners headline activity to recent price behavior and peer context. This view presents sentiment context from NGL Energy's options flow and short interest.
Short Interest Metrics for NGL Energy
Short interest in NGL Energy is a useful contrarian indicator. Extreme levels of short interest can precede sharp short-covering rallies if positive news surprises the market.
200 Day MA 7.492 | Short Percent 0.0405 | Short Ratio 8.24 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.7 M | 50 Day MA 11.1392 |
RSI Trend for NGL
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NGL Energy Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 11.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.40.NGL Energy Partners Hype-to-Price View
NGL Energy's news sentiment aggregates headline tone and social media engagement to build a real-time gauge of investor psychology around NGL. Sentiment extremes often precede price reversals.
The correlation between NGL Energy's news sentiment and price provides a measurable basis for market timing. A strong positive correlation suggests sentiment is currently driving price; a negative one may indicate a potential reversal.
NGL Energy Implied Volatility | 1.0 |
Unlike historical volatility, which measures past price movements, NGL Energy's implied volatility is a real-time gauge of how much uncertainty the options market is pricing into NGL Energy's future price action.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NGL Energy Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 11.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.40.NGL Energy after-hype prediction price | $ 11.18 |
The module provides attention context in addition to forecasting models, technical indicators, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of NGL Energy to cross-verify projections for NGL Energy. The historical view provides additional context.Rule 16 for the current NGL contract
Rule 16 converts implied volatility into an estimated daily move of about 6.25% for 2026-04-17 options. This context is informational: with NGL Energy near $ 11.45, the daily move estimate is $ 0.72 .
Open Interest View for NGL 2026-04-17 Options
Open interest counts active NGL Energy option contracts and frames participation alongside price behavior.
NGL Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NGL price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NGL using various technical indicators. When you analyze NGL charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NGL Energy Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 11.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.09 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.40 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NGL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NGL Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NGL Energy | NGL Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for NGL Energy Partners uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 8.49 on the downside to about 14.38 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NGL Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NGL Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9054 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.035 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2233 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0208 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.3978 |
Mean reversion in NGL Energy's price occurs when temporary dislocations - caused by sentiment extremes, news events, or liquidity shocks - correct back toward the stock's historical fair value.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Understanding NGL Energy's probability distribution helps investors calibrate position size to their risk tolerance. The tails of the NGL Energy distribution capture low-probability but high-impact outcomes that naive point estimates ignore.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Using NGL Energy's historical news impact data, we estimate the likely price corridor for the next trading session after a significant headline. NGL Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.23 and 14.13, respectively. Note that past news reactions for NGL Energy are not guaranteed to repeat, particularly in novel market environments.
Current Value
Macroaxis estimates the after-hype price of NGL Energy Partners across a 3 months horizon to evaluate where the instrument could settle once headline distortion subsides. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NGL Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NGL Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NGL Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 2.95 | 0.03 | 0.22 | 8 Events | 6 Events | In 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.45 | 11.18 | 0.27 |
|
Hype Timeline
On the 16th of March 2026 NGL Energy Partners is traded for 11.45. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.22. NGL is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.18. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on NGL Energy is about 388.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.23. About 59.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.26. NGL Energy Partners had its last dividend issued on the 5th of November 2020. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 8 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of NGL Energy to cross-verify projections for NGL Energy. The historical view provides additional context.Related Hype Analysis
Understanding how NGL Energy's direct competitors react to news events helps investors anticipate contagion effects and sector-wide sentiment shifts that may affect NGL Energy's performance.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GLP | Global Partners LP | 0.29 | 10 per month | 1.64 | 0.08 | 2.43 | -2.87 | 8.73 | |
| TK | Teekay | 0.18 | 7 per month | 1.79 | 0.12 | 3.15 | -2.66 | 14.80 | |
| ACDC | ProFrac Holding Corp | -0.03 | 8 per month | 3.17 | 0.17 | 8.48 | -5.71 | 16.12 | |
| WBI | WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC | 0.03 | 6 per month | 2.43 | 0.11 | 4.62 | -4.36 | 15.11 | |
| PDS | Precision Drilling | -9.04 | 8 per month | 1.62 | 0.25 | 3.35 | -2.16 | 12.76 | |
| TTI | Tetra Technologies | -0.32 | 8 per month | 4.38 | 0.02 | 5.23 | -5.52 | 25.75 | |
| DEC | Diversified Energy | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 4.31 | -4.21 | 11.00 | |
| TNP | Tsakos Energy Navigation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TEN-PE | Tsakos Energy Navigation | -0.16 | 22 per month | 0.28 | 0.22 | 0.58 | -0.50 | 1.54 | |
| NBR | Nabors Industries | 1.26 | 10 per month | 2.64 | 0.19 | 5.59 | -4.28 | 16.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for NGL Energy
The price movement of NGL is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. NGL Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.NGL Energy Related Equities
The following equities are related to NGL Energy within the Energy space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing NGL Energy against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NGL Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to NGL Energy stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell NGL Energy Partners.
NGL Energy Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for NGL Energy is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in NGL Energy's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.93 | |||
| Variance | 8.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.85 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NGL Energy
Coverage intensity for NGL Energy Partners matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
NGL Energy Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for NGL Energy Partners is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 132 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.5 M |
More Resources for NGL Stock Analysis
Reviewing NGL Energy Partners commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. NGL Energy's financial ratios translate raw accounting data into comparable profitability and efficiency signals. Selected reports below provide context for NGL Stock:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of NGL Energy to cross-verify projections for NGL Energy. The historical view provides additional context. NGL Energy P/E of 4.51 alongside ROE at 19.08% frames the starting point - the resources below add portfolio-level context that single-security analysis cannot provide alone. Solid capital efficiency at a reasonable valuation - the tools below help confirm that read. You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.60 | Earnings Share -0.26 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 | Return On Assets |
NGL Energy Partners's market price can diverge from book value, the accounting figure shown on NGL's balance sheet. NGL Energy's market capitalization is 1.39 B. At P/B 2.43, NGL Energy trades moderately above book value. Enterprise value stands at 4.44 B. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
Value and price for NGL Energy are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. For NGL Energy, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 4.51, a P/B ratio of 2.43, a profit margin of 4.51%, and ROE of 19.08%. NGL Energy's trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.