New Gold Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| NGD Stock | CAD 14.19 0.08 0.57% |
The Polynomial Regression forecast reference data for New Gold is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of New Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 14.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.02.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the New Gold historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm All Polynomial Regression forecast figures shown for New Gold are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of New Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 14.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.36 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.02 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest New Gold | New Gold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting New Gold for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 9.27 on the downside to about 19.04 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4147 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.902 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.06 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.0199 |
Other Forecasting Options for New Gold
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering New needs to understand the dynamics of New Gold's price movement. Price charts for New Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.New Gold Related Equities
The following equities are related to New Gold within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing New Gold against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
New Gold Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for New Gold enables investors to understand how the stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in New Gold.
New Gold Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing New Gold's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with New Gold's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 3.49 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.86 | |||
| Variance | 23.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 21.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 18.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -4.10 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for New Gold
The amount of media and story coverage tied to New Gold can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.
Story Categories
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New Gold Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for New Gold is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 796.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 110.3 M |
More Resources for New Stock Analysis
A comprehensive view of New Gold starts with financial statements and ratio context. New Gold's financial ratios translate raw accounting data into comparable profitability and efficiency signals. Selected reports below provide context for New Stock:Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Gold provides a cross-check on projections for New Gold. The historical view provides additional context. For more information on how to buy New Stock please use our How to Buy New Stock guide.New Gold P/E of 24.85 alongside ROE at 22.29% frames the starting point - the resources below add portfolio-level context that single-security analysis cannot provide alone. Combining those profitability and valuation signals with the risk, diversification, and comparative tools below produces a more informed Basic Materials position-sizing decision. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.