Norwegian Cruise Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NCLH Stock | USD 20.28 0.01 0.05% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Norwegian Cruise is derived from the equity's published trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norwegian Cruise Line on the next trading day is projected to be 20.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.89.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Norwegian Cruise Line forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Norwegian Cruise observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for Norwegian Cruise Line are Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norwegian Cruise Line on the next trading day is expected to be 20.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.81 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.89 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Norwegian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Norwegian Cruise's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Norwegian Cruise | Norwegian Cruise Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Norwegian Cruise Line focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 16.13 on the downside to about 24.39 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Norwegian Cruise stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Norwegian Cruise stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0638 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0274 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6648 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0297 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.887 |
Other Forecasting Options for Norwegian Cruise
For both new and experienced investors in Norwegian, the ability to analyze Norwegian Cruise's price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in Norwegian Stock can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.Norwegian Cruise Related Equities
The following equities are related to Norwegian Cruise within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Norwegian Cruise against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Norwegian Cruise Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Norwegian Cruise helps investors understand the momentum dynamics of the stock in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in Norwegian Cruise Line for maximum return potential.
Norwegian Cruise Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Norwegian Cruise's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with Norwegian Cruise's allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.06 | |||
| Variance | 16.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.53 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Norwegian Cruise
Coverage intensity for Norwegian Cruise Line matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Norwegian Cruise Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Norwegian Cruise Line matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 459.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 209.9 M |