New Century Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NCEW Stock | 8.00 0.40 4.76% |
New Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of New Century's stock price is slightly above 64. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling New, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
Using New Century hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of New Century Logistics from the perspective of New Century response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Century Logistics on the next trading day is expected to be 8.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.06. New Century after-hype prediction price | USD 8.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Century to cross-verify your projections. New Century Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine New price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for New using various technical indicators. When you analyze New charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
New Century Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of New Century Logistics on the next trading day is expected to be 8.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Century's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
New Century Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest New Century | New Century Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
New Century Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting New Century's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New Century's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.67 and 15.33, respectively. We have considered New Century's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Century stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Century stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2703 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.064 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2677 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0526 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.06 |
Predictive Modules for New Century
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Century Logistics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of New Century's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
New Century After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of New Century at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in New Century or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of New Century, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
New Century Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting New Century's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on New Century's historical news coverage. New Century's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.74 and 15.26, respectively. We have considered New Century's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
New Century is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of New Century Logistics is based on 3 months time horizon.
New Century Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as New Century is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading New Century backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with New Century, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.35 | 7.33 | 0.76 | 0.03 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.00 | 8.00 | 0.00 |
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New Century Hype Timeline
New Century Logistics is now traded for 8.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.76, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. New is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 1.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on New Century is about 30040.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.97. About 80.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of New Century was now reported as 2.88. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.83. New Century Logistics had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:8 split on the 14th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Century to cross-verify your projections.New Century Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to New Century's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict New Century's future price movements. Getting to know how New Century's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how New Century may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JYD | Jayud Global Logistics | (0.34) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 9.60 | (9.09) | 28.60 | |
| PSIG | PS International Group | (0.17) | 30 per month | 3.23 | 0.02 | 8.05 | (5.30) | 18.09 | |
| LSH | Lakeside Holding Limited | 0.01 | 6 per month | 4.16 | 0 | 11.76 | (6.90) | 49.01 | |
| AIRI | Air Industries Group | 0.05 | 10 per month | 2.28 | 0.01 | 3.72 | (4.01) | 25.67 | |
| ILAG | Intelligent Living Application | 0.17 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 12.40 | (13.92) | 62.13 | |
| UUU | Universal Security Instruments | (0.02) | 8 per month | 6.94 | 0.01 | 9.75 | (11.46) | 42.44 | |
| VRME | VerifyMe | 0.02 | 11 per month | 4.76 | 0.02 | 12.24 | (8.15) | 67.08 | |
| YGMZ | Mingzhu Logistics Holdings | (0) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 31.25 | (36.84) | 130.11 | |
| HKPD | Hong Kong Pharma | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.67 | (8.08) | 65.54 | |
| EHGO | Eshallgo Class A | 0.03 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 8.70 | (9.30) | 28.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for New Century
For every potential investor in New, whether a beginner or expert, New Century's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New Century's price trends.New Century Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Century stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Century could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Century by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
New Century Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New Century stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New Century shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New Century stock market strength indicators, traders can identify New Century Logistics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.20) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.40) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 64.59 |
New Century Risk Indicators
The analysis of New Century's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Century's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting new stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.05 | |||
| Variance | 49.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 32.4 | |||
| Semi Variance | 24.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for New Century
The number of cover stories for New Century depends on current market conditions and New Century's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that New Century is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about New Century's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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New Century Short Properties
New Century's future price predictability will typically decrease when New Century's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of New Century Logistics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential New Century's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. New Century's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 659.3 K |
Additional Tools for New Stock Analysis
When running New Century's price analysis, check to measure New Century's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy New Century is operating at the current time. Most of New Century's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of New Century's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move New Century's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of New Century to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.