MYR Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MYRG Stock | USD 285.18 1.03 0.36% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data for MYR is derived from the equity's published trading history. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes. All values shown are derived from publicly available market data.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MYR Group on the next trading day is expected to be 286.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 340.11.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past MYR observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older MYR Group observations. The forecast reference data presented here for MYR Group reflects Triple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MYR Group on the next trading day is expected to be 286.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.67 , mean absolute percentage error of 49.96 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 340.11 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MYR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MYR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MYR | MYR Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for MYR Group uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 284.06 on the downside to about 289.48 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MYR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MYR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.0272 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.6686 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0222 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 340.1142 |
Other Forecasting Options for MYR
Fibonacci retracement levels applied to MYR Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in MYR occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from MYR's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move can signal accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.MYR Related Equities
Sizing up MYR against these stocks within the Industrials space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Market cap and total value checks frame MYR's size within the competitive field. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks. These links can also guide portfolio spreading choices within the sector.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MYR Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for MYR provides context for understanding stock momentum dynamics. Tracking these indicators helps identify periods where trading MYR is likely to be most rewarding. These tools are essential for timing trades in MYR Group with a quantitative framework. Market strength indicators for MYR Group are most useful when viewed as part of a broader analytical framework.
MYR Risk Indicators
Properly assessing MYR's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding MYR's. Analyzing MYR's risk indicators provides a critical input for investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in MYR's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Variance | 6.93 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.58 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.93 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.28 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MYR
Coverage intensity for MYR Group matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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MYR Short Properties
A short-interest review of MYR Group provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 150.2 M |