Microvast Holdings Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MVST Stock | USD 1.52 -0.79 -34.20% |
This page provides reference data for Microvast Holdings using Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Microvast Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.81.When Microvast Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Microvast Holdings trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Microvast Holdings observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for Microvast Holdings presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Microvast Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.81 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Microvast Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Microvast Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Microvast Holdings | Microvast Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Microvast Holdings uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 0.02 and upside around 7.38 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Microvast Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Microvast Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0274 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0985 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0408 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.8101 |
Other Forecasting Options for Microvast Holdings
For investors considering Microvast, Microvast Holdings' price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in Microvast Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.Microvast Holdings Related Equities
The following equities are related to Microvast Holdings within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Microvast Holdings against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Microvast Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Microvast Holdings provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Microvast Holdings.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.66 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.52 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.52 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.39 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.79 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 32.41 |
Microvast Holdings Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of Microvast Holdings' risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in Microvast Holdings' allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.82 | |||
| Variance | 33.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Microvast Holdings
Story coverage around Microvast Holdings often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Microvast Holdings Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Microvast Holdings can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 324.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 105 M | |
| Shares Float | 199.2 M |
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