Microvast Holdings Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

MVST Stock  USD 1.52  -0.79  -34.20%   
This page provides reference data for Microvast Holdings using Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Microvast Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.81.When Microvast Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Microvast Holdings trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Microvast Holdings observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for Microvast Holdings presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Microvast Holdings works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Microvast Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.81 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Microvast Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Microvast Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Microvast Holdings  Microvast Holdings Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Microvast Holdings uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 0.02 and upside around 7.38 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
1.52
1.48
Expected Value
7.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Microvast Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Microvast Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0274
MADMean absolute deviation0.0985
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0408
SAESum of the absolute errors5.8101
When Microvast Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Microvast Holdings trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Microvast Holdings observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Microvast Holdings

For investors considering Microvast, Microvast Holdings' price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in Microvast Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.

Microvast Holdings Related Equities

The following equities are related to Microvast Holdings within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Microvast Holdings against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Microvast Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Microvast Holdings provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Microvast Holdings.

Microvast Holdings Risk Indicators

A structured analysis of Microvast Holdings' risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in Microvast Holdings' allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Microvast Holdings

Story coverage around Microvast Holdings often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.

Microvast Holdings Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Microvast Holdings can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding324.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments105 M
Shares Float199.2 M

Additional Tools for Microvast Stock Analysis

FinTech Suite
Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities
My Watchlist Analysis
Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Companies Directory
Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals
Money Managers
Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world
Portfolio Analyzer
Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine
Stock Screener
Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.