MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| MVALX Fund | USD 40.24 -0.73 -1.78% |
This reference view applies Simple Moving Average to Meridian Trarian Fund's historical closing prices. Meridian Trarian Fund's Simple Moving Average reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. Meridian Trarian Fund's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for Meridian Trarian Fund.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Meridian Trarian Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 40.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.21.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Meridian Trarian Fund price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future All forecast values on this page for Meridian Trarian Fund are Simple Moving Average reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Meridian Trarian Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 40.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.33 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.21 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MERIDIAN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 38.97 and upside near 41.52.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1717 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0019 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4869 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0116 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.215 |
Other Forecasting Options for MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN
Volume-weighted price analysis for MERIDIAN Mutual Fund gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in MERIDIAN momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in MERIDIAN Mutual Fund price action.MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN Related Equities
Sizing up MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN against these stocks within the Small Blend space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Growth rate gaps between MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN mutual fund allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. Monitoring these indicators highlights periods where Meridian Trarian Fund trading conditions shift meaningfully. These metrics are particularly useful when MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN mutual fund shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing Meridian Trarian Fund strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 40.24 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 40.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.36 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.73 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.67 |
MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN Risk Indicators
Understanding MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN's investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN's basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for meridian mutual fund becomes clearer when MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN's risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Variance | 1.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.63 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.99 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MERIDIAN CONTRARIAN
A coverage review of Meridian Trarian Fund shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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