Micron Technology Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MU Stock | USD 444.27 -17.46 -3.78% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference information for Micron Technology summarizes the forecasted value and model error statistics based on historical price data. This data is provided for reference and analytical review.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Micron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 452.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 799.13.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Micron Technology observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Micron Technology observations. Micron Technology's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference values are drawn from available trading data and are presented for informational reference only. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Micron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 452.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.54 , mean absolute percentage error of 269.12 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 799.13 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Micron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Micron Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Micron Technology | Micron Technology Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Micron Technology uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Micron Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Micron Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.4645 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 13.5445 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0357 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 799.1259 |
Other Forecasting Options for Micron Technology
Investors evaluating Micron at any level need to understand the significance of Micron Technology's price movement for their investment outcomes. The presence of noise in Micron Stock price charts demands careful analysis to avoid misinterpreting short-term fluctuations as trends.Micron Technology Related Equities
The following equities are related to Micron Technology within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Micron Technology against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Micron Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Micron Technology help investors evaluate how the stock tracks overall market momentum and conditions. These signals are used to determine optimal timing for entering or exiting Micron Technology positions.
Micron Technology Risk Indicators
The assessment of Micron Technology's risk indicators plays a key role in forecasting its future price and managing investment exposure. Investors who measure Micron Technology's risk profile carefully are better equipped to decide how to manage their positions.
| Mean Deviation | 3.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.86 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.35 | |||
| Variance | 18.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -4.21 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Micron Technology
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Micron Technology can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Micron Technology Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Micron Technology can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.3 B |
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