MTY Food Stock Forward View
| MTY Stock | CAD 38.65 -0.74 -1.88% |
This reference page presents Naive Prediction forecast data for MTY Food Group. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MTY Food Group on the next trading day is expected to be 40.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.42.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of MTY Food Group. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict MTY Food. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction forecast data for MTY Food Group is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MTY Food Group on the next trading day is expected to be 40.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.37 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.42 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MTY Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MTY Food's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MTY Food | MTY Food Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for MTY Food Group uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MTY Food stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MTY Food stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1157 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4986 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0122 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.4173 |
Other Forecasting Options for MTY Food
MTY Food's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in MTY often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.MTY Food Related Equities
Investors studying MTY Food often look at related stocks within the Consumer Discretionary space to gauge pricing and results. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for MTY Food's results. Firms that trade at big discounts to peers on core metrics may be worth more research.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MTY Food Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how MTY Food stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading MTY Food Group.
MTY Food Risk Indicators
The analysis of MTY Food's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding MTY Food's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Variance | 3.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.87 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.53 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MTY Food
Story coverage around MTY Food Group often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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MTY Food Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for MTY Food Group is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 52 M |
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Other Information on Investing in MTY Stock
MTY Food ratios capture relationships across its reported financial data. They summarize how financial performance connects to valuation.