Motorola Solutions Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MSI Stock | USD 456.64 4.29 0.95% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Motorola Solutions is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Motorola Solutions on the next trading day is projected to be 456.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 265.07.When Motorola Solutions prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Motorola Solutions trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Motorola Solutions observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for Motorola Solutions presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Motorola Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 456.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.42 , mean absolute percentage error of 40.16 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 265.07 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Motorola Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Motorola Solutions' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Motorola Solutions | Motorola Solutions Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Motorola Solutions uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 455.01 and upside around 457.88 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Motorola Solutions stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Motorola Solutions stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3299 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.4178 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0102 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 265.0656 |
Other Forecasting Options for Motorola Solutions
The distribution of Motorola Solutions' daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Motorola Solutions' chart that simple price charts miss.Motorola Solutions Related Equities
Sizing up Motorola Solutions against these stocks within the Information Technology space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across Motorola Solutions' peer group. Firms that trade at big discounts to peers on core metrics may be worth more research. Combining quantitative ratios with qualitative context such as management quality and market position sharpens peer comparisons.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Motorola Solutions Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Motorola Solutions give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Motorola Solutions.
Motorola Solutions Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Motorola Solutions' risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Motorola Solutions' allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9978 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5953 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Variance | 2.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.01 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3544 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.18 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Motorola Solutions
Story coverage around Motorola Solutions often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Motorola Solutions Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Motorola Solutions is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 168.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |