Melcor Developments Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| MRD Stock | CAD 17.71 -0.28 -1.56% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast reference data for Melcor Developments is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Melcor Developments on the next trading day is expected to be 17.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.41.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Melcor Developments price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Melcor Developments. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future All Simple Moving Average forecast figures shown for Melcor Developments are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Melcor Developments on the next trading day is expected to be 17.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.41 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Melcor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Melcor Developments' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Melcor Developments | Melcor Developments Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Melcor Developments for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 16.64 on the downside to about 18.78 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Melcor Developments stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Melcor Developments stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.082 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0715 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1402 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for Melcor Developments
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering Melcor needs to understand the dynamics of Melcor Developments' price movement. Price charts for Melcor Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.Melcor Developments Related Equities
The following equities are related to Melcor Developments within the Real Estate space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Melcor Developments against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Melcor Developments Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Melcor Developments enables investors to understand how the stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Melcor Developments.
| Accumulation Distribution | 321.2 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.53 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.86 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.36 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.28 |
Melcor Developments Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Melcor Developments' key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process quantifies the risk associated with Melcor Developments' and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.785 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7228 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Variance | 1.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5225 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.97 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Melcor Developments
Story coverage around Melcor Developments often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Melcor Developments Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Melcor Developments can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 74.9 M |
More Resources for Melcor Stock Analysis
Other Information on Investing in Melcor Stock
At Melcor Developments, financial ratios outline links between core financial data. Each ratio adds context around profit, cash flow, and total value. Values are aligned to support consistent measurement over time. The data reflects the most recent reporting period available and is provided for reference.