MATTHEWS ASIA Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MPACX Fund | USD 29.02 0.09 0.31% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
This view aligns MATTHEWS ASIA's headline activity with price response and peer context.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Matthews Asia Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 29.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.22.MATTHEWS ASIA after-hype prediction price | $ 29.02 |
The module provides attention context in addition to forecasting models, technical indicators, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
MATTHEWS |
MATTHEWS ASIA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MATTHEWS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MATTHEWS using various technical indicators. When you analyze MATTHEWS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Matthews Asia Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 29.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.17 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.22 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MATTHEWS Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MATTHEWS ASIA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MATTHEWS ASIA | MATTHEWS ASIA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Matthews Asia Growth uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 27.64 on the downside to about 30.40 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MATTHEWS ASIA mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MATTHEWS ASIA mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.5067 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0473 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.287 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0099 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.22 |
The concept of mean reversion suggests that MATTHEWS ASIA's price will eventually return toward its long-run average. High prices may deter value investors, while unusually low prices often attract buyers who anticipate a recovery.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The price distribution graph for MATTHEWS ASIA visualizes the statistical uncertainty around our prediction model's output. Investors should interpret the full distribution of MATTHEWS ASIA's outcomes, not just the central tendency, when making decisions.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The downside and upside margins for MATTHEWS ASIA after major news events are estimated from historical precedent. MATTHEWS ASIA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.64 and 30.40, respectively. This approach captures the empirical distribution of MATTHEWS ASIA's short-term price reactions without assuming any particular model of future behavior.
Current Value
Macroaxis estimates the after-hype price of Matthews Asia Growth across a 3 months horizon to evaluate where the instrument could settle once headline distortion subsides. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as MATTHEWS ASIA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MATTHEWS ASIA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MATTHEWS ASIA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events | 1 Events | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
29.02 | 29.02 | 0.00 |
|
Hype Timeline
Matthews Asia Growth is now traded for 29.02. The fund stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. MATTHEWS is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on MATTHEWS ASIA is about 1774.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.01. The fund had its last dividend issued on the 17th of December 2019. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Historical Fundamental Analysis of MATTHEWS ASIA provides a cross-check on projections for MATTHEWS ASIA. The historical series provides projection context.Related Hype Analysis
The relationship between MATTHEWS ASIA and its sector peers means that news affecting one company often reverberates across MATTHEWS ASIA's competitive landscape. Tracking peer hype helps investors anticipate MATTHEWS ASIA's likely short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MASGX | Matthews Asia Esg | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.28 | 0.16 | 2.30 | -1.91 | 8.43 | |
| SKSEX | Amg Managers Skyline | -0.02 | 1 per month | 0.96 | 0.13 | 1.76 | -1.85 | 9.25 | |
| EAEMX | Parametric Emerging Markets | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.83 | 0.12 | 1.13 | -1.56 | 4.78 | |
| WAEMX | Wasatch Emerging Markets | -0.02 | 1 per month | 0.00 | -0.1 | 1.75 | -2.17 | 42.89 | |
| LVOLX | Summit Global Investments | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.35 | 0.08 | 1.20 | -0.82 | 10.79 | |
| TPIAX | Timothy Plan International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.04 | 0.07 | 1.60 | -1.80 | 5.44 | |
| DSCVX | Dreyfus Opportunistic Small | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.49 | 0.19 | 1.71 | -1.43 | 4.69 | |
| ADNRX | American Beacon Ark | -0.39 | 2 per month | 0.00 | -0.08 | 2.99 | -3.37 | 9.44 | |
| WMMAX | Teton Westwood Mighty | -0.27 | 1 per month | 0.82 | 0.14 | 2.04 | -1.65 | 4.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for MATTHEWS ASIA
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering MATTHEWS needs to understand the dynamics of MATTHEWS ASIA's price movement. Price charts for MATTHEWS Mutual Fund contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.MATTHEWS ASIA Related Equities
The following equities are related to MATTHEWS ASIA within the Diversified Pacific/Asia space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing MATTHEWS ASIA against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MATTHEWS ASIA Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for MATTHEWS ASIA enables investors to understand how the mutual fund performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Matthews Asia Growth.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 29.02 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 29.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.045 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.09 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.82 |
MATTHEWS ASIA Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing MATTHEWS ASIA's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with MATTHEWS ASIA's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9408 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.95 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.98 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MATTHEWS ASIA
Coverage intensity for Matthews Asia Growth matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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