Mobilicom Limited Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

MOB Stock   6.41  0.37  6.13%   
The forecast reference data for Mobilicom Limited on this page is generated using Double Exponential Smoothing applied to historical price observations. Projected values and error measures are included as reference material.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mobilicom Limited American on the next trading day is expected to be 6.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.91.When Mobilicom Limited American prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Mobilicom Limited American trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Mobilicom Limited observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference values for Mobilicom Limited are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Mobilicom Limited works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mobilicom Limited American on the next trading day is expected to be 6.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.24 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.91 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mobilicom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mobilicom Limited's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Mobilicom Limited American focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 0.06 and upside around 13.21 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
6.41
6.44
Expected Value
13.21
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mobilicom Limited stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mobilicom Limited stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0607
MADMean absolute deviation0.3818
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0575
SAESum of the absolute errors22.911
When Mobilicom Limited American prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Mobilicom Limited American trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Mobilicom Limited observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Mobilicom Limited

Investors at all stages of experience who consider Mobilicom must develop an understanding of Mobilicom Limited's price dynamics. The noise embedded in Mobilicom Stock price charts can create misleading signals and skew investment decisions.

Mobilicom Limited Related Equities

The following equities are related to Mobilicom Limited within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Mobilicom Limited against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mobilicom Limited Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators applied to Mobilicom Limited stock give investors a structured view of the security's momentum relative to the overall market. Using these indicators, traders can refine their timing when entering or exiting positions in Mobilicom Limited American.

Mobilicom Limited Risk Indicators

Evaluating Mobilicom Limited's risk indicators is an important step in accurately forecasting its price and assessing the suitability of an investment. Understanding the risk profile of Mobilicom Limited's allows investors to make more informed decisions about position sizing and risk.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Mobilicom Limited

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Mobilicom Limited American can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.

Mobilicom Limited Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Mobilicom Limited American is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding6.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments8.6 M

More Resources for Mobilicom Stock Analysis

A structured review of Mobilicom Limited often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Mobilicom Limited American Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Mobilicom Limited American Stock: