MADISON INVESTORS Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MNVRX Fund | USD 27.38 -0.05 -0.18% |
The reference data on this page reflects Double Exponential Smoothing output applied to Madison Investors Fund's historical daily closing prices. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Madison Investors Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 27.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.47.When Madison Investors Fund prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Madison Investors Fund trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent MADISON INVESTORS observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Madison Investors Fund reflects Double Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Madison Investors Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 27.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.12 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.47 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MADISON Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MADISON INVESTORS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Madison Investors Fund focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MADISON INVESTORS mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MADISON INVESTORS mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0602 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2283 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.008 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.4716 |
Other Forecasting Options for MADISON INVESTORS
Understanding MADISON INVESTORS's price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering MADISON as a position. MADISON Mutual Fund price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.MADISON INVESTORS Related Equities
The following equities are related to MADISON INVESTORS within the Large Blend space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing MADISON INVESTORS against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MADISON INVESTORS Market Strength Events
For traders and investors in Madison Investors Fund, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the mutual fund's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading MADISON INVESTORS shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 27.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 27.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.78 |
MADISON INVESTORS Risk Indicators
Analyzing MADISON INVESTORS's risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in MADISON INVESTORS's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7652 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8728 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Variance | 1.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9604 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7618 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.80 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MADISON INVESTORS
Coverage intensity for Madison Investors Fund matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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