Martin Midstream Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

MMLP Stock  USD 2.63  -0.05  -1.87%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for Martin Midstream is derived from the equity's published trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Martin Midstream Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 2.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.57.When Martin Midstream Partners prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Martin Midstream Partners trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Martin Midstream observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for Martin Midstream Partners are Double Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Martin Midstream works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Martin Midstream Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 2.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.57 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Martin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Martin Midstream's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Martin Midstream  Martin Midstream Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Martin Midstream Partners focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 0.03 and upside around 5.87 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
2.63
2.61
Expected Value
5.87
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Martin Midstream stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Martin Midstream stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0178
MADMean absolute deviation0.0775
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0279
SAESum of the absolute errors4.573
When Martin Midstream Partners prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Martin Midstream Partners trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Martin Midstream observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Martin Midstream

For both new and experienced investors in Martin, the ability to analyze Martin Midstream's price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in Martin Stock can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.

Martin Midstream Related Equities

The following equities are related to Martin Midstream within the Energy space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Martin Midstream against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Martin Midstream Market Strength Events

Tracking market strength indicators for Martin Midstream provides context for understanding the momentum dynamics of the stock in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in Martin Midstream Partners for maximum return potential.

Martin Midstream Risk Indicators

Properly assessing Martin Midstream's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with Martin Midstream's allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Martin Midstream

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Martin Midstream Partners can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

Martin Midstream Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Martin Midstream Partners can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding38.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments49 K

Additional Tools for Martin Stock Analysis

Portfolio Comparator
Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Portfolio Dashboard
Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments
Commodity Directory
Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges