MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MLTX Stock | USD 16.71 -0.16 -0.95% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics is based on the equity's recent trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 16.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.66.When MoonLake Immunotherapeutics prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any MoonLake Immunotherapeutics trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent MoonLake Immunotherapeuti observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing projections for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 16.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.50 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.74 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.66 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MoonLake Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MoonLake Immunotherapeuti | MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for MoonLake Immunotherapeutics uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 10.51 and upside near 22.65.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MoonLake Immunotherapeuti stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.181 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5027 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0311 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for MoonLake Immunotherapeuti
Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of MoonLake Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's returns can persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Related Equities
Sizing up MoonLake Immunotherapeuti against these stocks within the Health Care space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Growth rate gaps between MoonLake Immunotherapeuti and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for MoonLake Immunotherapeuti enables investors to understand relative stock momentum. These tools help identify favorable windows for position changes in MoonLake Immunotherapeutics. Market strength indicators support more precise timing of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics positions across market cycles.
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's and determining how best to manage it. Studying MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's risk indicators helps investors understand the risk level of moonlake stock.
| Mean Deviation | 3.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.81 | |||
| Variance | 33.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MoonLake Immunotherapeuti
Story coverage around MoonLake Immunotherapeutics often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Short Properties
A short-interest review of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 64.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 394 M |