MFS INTERNATIONAL Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| MINIX Fund | USD 46.64 0.68 1.48% |
The Polynomial Regression forecast shown here for MFS INTERNATIONAL is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Polynomial Regression output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mfs International Value on the next trading day is expected to be 44.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.47.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the MFS INTERNATIONAL historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm This Polynomial Regression reference page for MFS INTERNATIONAL presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mfs International Value on the next trading day is expected to be 44.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.32 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.47 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MFS Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MFS INTERNATIONAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MFS INTERNATIONAL | MFS INTERNATIONAL Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Mfs International Value uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MFS INTERNATIONAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MFS INTERNATIONAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9795 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.434 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.474 |
Other Forecasting Options for MFS INTERNATIONAL
The distribution of MFS INTERNATIONAL's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in MFS INTERNATIONAL's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of MFS INTERNATIONAL's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in MFS.MFS INTERNATIONAL Related Equities
Sizing up MFS INTERNATIONAL against these stocks within the Foreign Large Blend space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge MFS INTERNATIONAL's relative financial strength. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MFS INTERNATIONAL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for MFS INTERNATIONAL give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Mfs International Value. Market strength analysis for Mfs International Value works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For MFS INTERNATIONAL, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 46.64 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 46.64 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.34 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.68 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.37 |
MFS INTERNATIONAL Risk Indicators
A thorough review of MFS INTERNATIONAL's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in MFS INTERNATIONAL's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of MFS INTERNATIONAL's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in MFS INTERNATIONAL's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7115 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9422 | |||
| Variance | 0.8877 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MFS INTERNATIONAL
Coverage intensity for Mfs International Value matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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