MGIC INVESTMENT Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MGC Stock | EUR 22.30 0.06 0.27% |
MGIC INVESTMENT's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for MGIC INVESTMENT. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for MGIC INVESTMENT.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MGIC INVESTMENT on the next trading day is expected to be 22.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.64.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting MGIC INVESTMENT forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent MGIC INVESTMENT observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for MGIC INVESTMENT are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MGIC INVESTMENT on the next trading day is expected to be 22.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.12 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.64 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MGIC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MGIC INVESTMENT's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MGIC INVESTMENT | MGIC INVESTMENT Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for MGIC INVESTMENT focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MGIC INVESTMENT stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MGIC INVESTMENT stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1225 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.046 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1773 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for MGIC INVESTMENT
Bollinger Bands applied to MGIC Stock price data measure how far MGIC has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to MGIC INVESTMENT's price data. On-balance volume for MGIC Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in MGIC. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for MGIC INVESTMENT's.MGIC INVESTMENT Related Equities
These stocks within the Materials space are often compared to MGIC INVESTMENT by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Firms that trade at big discounts to peers on core metrics may be worth more research.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MGIC INVESTMENT Market Strength Events
For investors tracking MGIC INVESTMENT, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around MGIC INVESTMENT positions. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in MGIC INVESTMENT. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around MGIC INVESTMENT.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 22.3 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 22.3 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.06 |
MGIC INVESTMENT Risk Indicators
Analyzing MGIC INVESTMENT's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for mgic stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in MGIC INVESTMENT's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing MGIC INVESTMENT's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in MGIC INVESTMENT's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8174 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Variance | 2.02 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MGIC INVESTMENT
Coverage intensity for MGIC INVESTMENT matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.
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MGIC INVESTMENT Short Properties
A short-interest review of MGIC INVESTMENT provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 219.4 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -132.5 M |
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