Magna International Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| MGA Stock | USD 52.19 -0.41 -0.78% |
Magna International's Simple Regression reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Magna International on the next trading day is expected to be 59.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 205.59.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Magna International historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. Magna International's Simple Regression reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Magna International on the next trading day is expected to be 59.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.37 , mean absolute percentage error of 18.66 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 205.59 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Magna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Magna International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Magna International | Magna International Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Magna International uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 56.30 and upside around 62.20 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Magna International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Magna International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.0367 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.3703 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0583 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 205.5888 |
Other Forecasting Options for Magna International
Analyzing Magna International's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Magna International's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.Magna International Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Consumer Discretionary space can help frame Magna International's pricing and running costs in context. Checking Magna International against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Magna International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Magna International stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade Magna International.
Magna International Risk Indicators
Assessing Magna International's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting Magna International's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.88 | |||
| Variance | 8.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.14 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.92 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.84 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Magna International
Story coverage around Magna International often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Magna International Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Magna International is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 282.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |