Mizuho Financial Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

MFG Stock  USD 7.78  -0.18  -2.26%   
Mizuho Financial's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mizuho Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 7.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.46.When Mizuho Financial Group prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Mizuho Financial Group trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Mizuho Financial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Mizuho Financial's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Mizuho Financial works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mizuho Financial Group on the next trading day is expected to be 7.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.46 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mizuho Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mizuho Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

Forecasting Mizuho Financial Group for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 5.62 on the downside to about 9.89 on the upside.
Market Value
7.78
7.76
Expected Value
9.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mizuho Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mizuho Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0026
MADMean absolute deviation0.1434
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0167
SAESum of the absolute errors8.4587
When Mizuho Financial Group prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Mizuho Financial Group trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Mizuho Financial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Mizuho Financial

Analyzing Mizuho Financial's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Mizuho Financial's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.

Mizuho Financial Related Equities

These firms work in a similar space as Mizuho Financial within the Financials space and serve as useful points for comparison. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Mizuho Financial's results. Firms that trade at big discounts to peers on core metrics may be worth more research. These checks provide a starting point for deeper study of Mizuho Financial's strengths and weak spots.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mizuho Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Mizuho Financial stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade Mizuho Financial.

Mizuho Financial Risk Indicators

Assessing Mizuho Financial's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting Mizuho Financial's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Mizuho Financial

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Mizuho Financial Group can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.

Mizuho Financial Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Mizuho Financial Group can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding12.6 B
Cash And Short Term Investments83.5 T

More Resources for Mizuho Stock Analysis

Initial analysis of Mizuho Financial centers on its financial statements and observed trends. Below are reports that help frame Mizuho Financial Group Stock in context: