Mayville Engineering Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| MEC Stock | USD 17.85 0.60 3.48% |
Mayville Engineering's Simple Moving Average reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Mayville Engineering Co on the next trading day is expected to be 17.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.52.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Mayville Engineering Co price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Mayville Engineering. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future Mayville Engineering's Simple Moving Average reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Mayville Engineering Co on the next trading day is expected to be 17.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.39 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.52 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mayville Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mayville Engineering's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mayville Engineering | Mayville Engineering Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Mayville Engineering Co focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 14.93 and upside around 20.77 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mayville Engineering stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mayville Engineering stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4913 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0429 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4834 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0254 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mayville Engineering
Analyzing Mayville Engineering's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Mayville Engineering's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.Mayville Engineering Related Equities
These related stocks within the Industrials space give benchmarks for judging Mayville Engineering's results, margins, and growth trend. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mayville Engineering Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Mayville Engineering stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade Mayville Engineering.
Mayville Engineering Risk Indicators
Assessing Mayville Engineering's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting Mayville Engineering's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 2.44 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.95 | |||
| Variance | 8.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.06 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mayville Engineering
Story coverage around Mayville Engineering Co often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Mayville Engineering Short Properties
A short-interest review of Mayville Engineering Co provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 20.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.5 M |