Mediwound Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MDWD Stock | USD 16.98 0.37 2.23% |
This page provides Double Exponential Smoothing reference data for Mediwound, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from Mediwound's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes. Projected values and accuracy measures are included for reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mediwound on the next trading day is expected to be 16.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.66.When Mediwound prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Mediwound trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Mediwound observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for Mediwound is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mediwound on the next trading day is expected to be 16.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.21 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.66 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mediwound Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mediwound's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
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| Backtest Mediwound | Mediwound Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Mediwound's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 14.34 and upside near 19.36.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mediwound stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mediwound stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.102 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.361 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0206 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mediwound
The autocorrelation structure of Mediwound's daily returns reveals whether Mediwound exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in Mediwound Stock price data. Stochastic oscillator analysis compares Mediwound's closing price to its range over a given period.Mediwound Related Equities
Mediwound's market space within the Health Care space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Profit comparisons show whether Mediwound earns above or below average returns next to its peers.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mediwound Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Mediwound stock help assess momentum and resilience across environments. These indicators support informed market timing decisions when analyzing Mediwound. For Mediwound, market strength indicators complement fundamental analysis with timing context.
Mediwound Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Mediwound is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mediwound's investment and either accepting or mitigating it. Understanding the risk profile of Mediwound's allows investors to make more informed decisions about position sizing.
| Mean Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.41 | |||
| Variance | 5.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mediwound
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Mediwound can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Mediwound Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Mediwound matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 53.1 M |