Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| MDNA Stock | CAD 0.90 0.04 4.65% |
Medicenna Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Medicenna Therapeutics Cor fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's share price is approaching 40. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Medicenna Therapeutics Cor, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.06) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.23) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.36) | Wall Street Target Price 3.875 |
Using Medicenna Therapeutics Cor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Medicenna Therapeutics Corp from the perspective of Medicenna Therapeutics Cor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Medicenna Therapeutics Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.25. Medicenna Therapeutics Cor after-hype prediction price | CAD 0.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Medicenna |
Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Medicenna price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Medicenna using various technical indicators. When you analyze Medicenna charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Medicenna Therapeutics Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Medicenna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Medicenna Therapeutics Cor | Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.67, respectively. We have considered Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Medicenna Therapeutics Cor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Medicenna Therapeutics Cor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2626 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1189 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.2521 |
Predictive Modules for Medicenna Therapeutics Cor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Medicenna Therapeutics Cor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Medicenna Therapeutics Cor After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Medicenna Therapeutics Cor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Medicenna Therapeutics Cor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Medicenna Therapeutics Cor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's historical news coverage. Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.04 and 4.90, respectively. We have considered Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Medicenna Therapeutics Cor is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Medicenna Therapeutics Cor is based on 3 months time horizon.
Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Medicenna Therapeutics Cor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Medicenna Therapeutics Cor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Medicenna Therapeutics Cor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.77 | 4.00 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.90 | 0.86 | 4.44 |
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Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Hype Timeline
Medicenna Therapeutics Cor is now traded for 0.90on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.2. Medicenna is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.86. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -4.44%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.77%. The volatility of related hype on Medicenna Therapeutics Cor is about 1564.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.10. About 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.15. Medicenna Therapeutics Cor last dividend was issued on the 3rd of March 2017. The entity had 1:14 split on the 3rd of March 2017. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Medicenna Therapeutics Cor to cross-verify your projections.Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's future price movements. Getting to know how Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Medicenna Therapeutics Cor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MSCL | Satellos Bioscience | 1.80 | 9 per month | 3.28 | 0.17 | 8.70 | (5.32) | 22.79 | |
| MIR | MedMira | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.15 | 0.02 | 14.29 | (12.50) | 30.95 | |
| ARCH | Arch Biopartners | 0.02 | 1 per month | 5.02 | (0.01) | 9.85 | (8.20) | 39.39 | |
| ZEN | ZEN Graphene Solutions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 7.37 | (8.00) | 31.63 | |
| SVA | Sernova Corp | 0.00 | 4 per month | 3.48 | 0.01 | 7.69 | (7.14) | 25.83 | |
| COV | Covalon Technologies | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.68 | (5.14) | 15.34 | |
| MDP | Medexus Pharmaceuticals | (0.02) | 3 per month | 1.90 | 0.02 | 4.12 | (3.60) | 11.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for Medicenna Therapeutics Cor
For every potential investor in Medicenna, whether a beginner or expert, Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Medicenna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Medicenna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's price trends.Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Medicenna Therapeutics Cor stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Medicenna Therapeutics Cor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Medicenna Therapeutics Cor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Medicenna Therapeutics Cor stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Medicenna Therapeutics Cor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Medicenna Therapeutics Cor stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Medicenna Therapeutics Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Risk Indicators
The analysis of Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting medicenna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.15 | |||
| Variance | 17.23 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Medicenna Therapeutics Cor
The number of cover stories for Medicenna Therapeutics Cor depends on current market conditions and Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Medicenna Therapeutics Cor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Medicenna Therapeutics Cor Short Properties
Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's future price predictability will typically decrease when Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Medicenna Therapeutics Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Medicenna Therapeutics Cor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 76.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 24.8 M |
Other Information on Investing in Medicenna Stock
Medicenna Therapeutics Cor financial ratios help investors to determine whether Medicenna Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Medicenna with respect to the benefits of owning Medicenna Therapeutics Cor security.